Bitcoin’s retreat below the 72,000 dollar mark has triggered two competing scenarios among market analysts, fueling renewed debate over the cryptocurrency giant’s next move. On one side, some experts point to the 50,000–54,000 dollar range as the next major support area, while others argue that the decline toward the 61,000–62,000 dollar zone has already fulfilled key technical targets.
Deeper risks remain on the table according to MVRV model
Crypto analyst Ali Martinez, referencing the MVRV price bands from Glassnode, warns that downside risks could persist for Bitcoin. As the latest charts show, Bitcoin is currently trading around 67,180 dollars, which is below both the MVRV average band at 94,163 dollars and slightly beneath the minus 0.5 standard deviation band at 72,444 dollars.
Quick glossary: The MVRV is a metric comparing Bitcoin’s market value to its realized value. Realized value reflects the average cost at which circulating coins last moved, so the model aims to show how far current prices have shifted from their historical cost base.
Within this model, the next significant support zone lies between the realized price of 53,909 dollars and the minus 1.0 standard deviation band at 50,726 dollars. Martinez argues that if current support fails to hold, Bitcoin could retreat toward this newly identified area.
Ali Martinez observes that Bitcoin entered a technically weaker zone after breaking below 72,000 dollars, with 50,726 to 53,909 dollars emerging as the fresh target area if support falters further.
Historically, Bitcoin has found support near lower MVRV bands during sharp corrections in both 2022 and 2023. Should a similar pattern emerge, the 50,000–54,000 dollar range could prove critical for investors tracking the downtrend. However, as prices remain above both the realized price and the minus 1.0 deviation band for now, the longer-term bullish structure is seen as intact unless these levels are breached.
Price channel break largely played out, says prominent analyst
Another leading analyst, SuperBitcoinBro, suggests that Bitcoin has already reached its primary technical target after breaking below its rising channel formation. In his recent daily chart, the loss of the lower boundary of the channel—active since February—spurred expectations of a pullback to the 61,000–62,000 dollar zone.
The cryptocurrency subsequently dropped as low as 63,869 dollars, briefly testing the predicted target region. According to SuperBitcoinBro, the market reaction landed almost squarely on the area highlighted by the channel breakdown. The analyst also notes that the latest pullback saw Bitcoin lose the 38.2 percent Fibonacci level near 74,000 dollars, the 50 percent retracement near 79,000 dollars, and the 61.8 percent mark close to 84,000 dollars.
| Technical level | Value | Remark |
|---|---|---|
| Channel breakdown target | 61,000–62,000 dollars | Key range following the drop |
| Recent low | 63,869 dollars | Just above the targeted zone |
| 200 week moving average | 61,600 dollars | One of the main supports |
SuperBitcoinBro states that the main technical downside target has now been met, so forecasts for much steeper declines are currently not strongly supported by chart patterns.
While the analyst notes that selling pressure may begin to fade in this region, he does not rule out the possibility of further declines. The standout orange trend line and the key 200 week moving average at around 61,600 dollars are flagged as crucial support zones for market balance in the short term.
