According to the latest assessment by CryptoQuant, the 53,600 dollar level could mark a potential bottom zone for Bitcoin. The firm notes that this price aligns with Bitcoin’s realized price, which tracks the aggregate cost basis on the blockchain. Nonetheless, their research highlights that demand indicators remain weak and there’s still no clear sign of a sustained market recovery.
Renewed focus on realized price
CryptoQuant has recalculated Bitcoin’s realized price to stand at 53,600 dollars, suggesting this level could serve as a potential floor. Julio Moreno, CryptoQuant’s Head of Research, pointed out that in previous bear markets, Bitcoin has historically bottomed out either near or slightly below this threshold, if only for a short duration.
Historically, this level is regarded as an area that can confirm a bottom. However, due to weak demand at present, this scenario remains only a possibility for now.
To clarify: realized price is the average cost basis determined by the price of coins’ last movement on-chain, and is distinct from market value. It’s used to measure the collective cost for the investor base instead of simply tracking Bitcoin’s market capitalization.
Moreno also stressed that there’s no guarantee the price will drop all the way to this level. After tumbling to around 59,000 dollars last week, Bitcoin rebounded to trade near 62,150 dollars. Despite the recent decline, Bitcoin is still about 9 percent above the 53,600 level.
Demand data signals continued weakness
CryptoQuant data reveals total Bitcoin demand dropped by 652,000 BTC last week—the largest weekly contraction since January 2022. This metric combines visible demand from both speculative moves in derivatives and spot market activity to paint a broad picture of real interest.
Their report shows that as Bitcoin slipped below 60,000 dollars, both futures-driven interest and spot demand diminished. Long positions were liquidated at a higher pace while spot selling accelerated. Furthermore, annualized visible demand growth turned negative, moving below its moving average—a deterioration that, as Moreno notes, is the sharpest since February 2024.
Today, the number of buyers appears lower compared to last year. This situation weakens the demand foundation needed for a price recovery to persist.
Monitoring ETF flows and realized losses
Institutional demand also showed signs of slowing. The 30-day ETF demand growth turned negative at minus 74,000 BTC, the weakest pace since spot Bitcoin ETFs launched in the US in January 2024. The report observes that as investors scale back their positions, ETFs’ net available supply is rising accordingly.
Still, realized losses have yet to indicate full capitulation in the market. In the past month, Bitcoin investors registered a cumulative loss of 187,000 BTC. For comparison, this number was 400,000 BTC during the post 60,000 dollar drop in February 2026, and peaked at 1.2 million BTC during the market bottom in November 2022.
Moreno explains that, even at 59,000 dollars, a significant portion of investors remain above water, meaning we have not yet seen the kind of widespread capitulation that typifies classic market bottoms. Historically, he says, deep selling and seller exhaustion precede major lows. Today’s data point to 53,600 dollars as a likely valuation floor, but also underline that meaningful recovery in demand has not yet materialized to ignite a new bullish phase.
