Despite Bitcoin’s recent rally, on-chain data suggests that the recovery remains fragile. Analysts warn that prices moving above $67,000 alone do not signal a firm turnaround. Weak trading volumes and stagnant market indicators have raised questions about the durability of this latest upswing.
Geopolitical tensions shape the rebound
Nick Ruck, Research Director at LVRG Research, notes that although Bitcoin has reclaimed the $67,000 mark in recent days, momentum in the market continues to lag. According to Ruck, falling volumes and sideways trends in on-chain data indicate that investor confidence remains weak, leaving the door open for the rebound to quickly lose strength.
Nick Ruck explained that the latest move in Bitcoin lacks strong market support, making it difficult to see the rebound as sustainable.
Ruck also warned that should the US-brokered peace deal with Iran collapse, a fresh wave of geopolitical volatility could swiftly shake markets. In such a scenario, pressure in the energy sector could trigger abrupt price movements across risk assets, including Bitcoin.
US President Donald Trump announced on Sunday that a peace agreement aimed at ending months of tension had been reached, and that the deal was set to be signed on Friday. Bitcoin’s latest surge accelerated after this statement, reflecting a broader trend across global markets.
Deal details remain uncertain
Most aspects of the peace agreement are still unclear. However, Trump’s statement emphasized that the Strait of Hormuz will remain open, and the US will lift blockades on both the strait and Iranian ports. According to the Associated Press, both sides are expected to start a 60-day negotiation period focused on Iran’s nuclear program and possible sanction relief.
Recently, Bitcoin has shown growing correlation with broader market trends, driven in part by rising institutional interest. This pattern highlights how the cryptocurrency’s short-term movements are increasingly dictated not only by internal dynamics, but also by global political and macroeconomic shifts.
On-chain signals still weak
Swissblock’s Monday assessment points to persistent weakness in technical indicators tracking price momentum and on-balance volume (OBV), a metric for buy-sell pressure. The firm reported that both indicators remain in negative territory.
Bitcoin, which fell below $60,000 on June 6, recovered to $67,000 by Monday. However, momentum stayed at minus 1, while OBV dropped to a multi-year low of minus 1.7 million—data that suggests the rally is lacking robust participation from market players.
Glossary: OBV is a technical indicator that measures the direction of buying and selling pressure by tracking trading volume alongside price. Momentum is used to gauge how strong or weak a price trend is over time.
Swissblock stated that a convincing recovery would require both momentum and OBV to turn positive, warning that until then, Bitcoin remains at risk of retesting its lows.
According to Swissblock, classic bear market phases typically see momentum fade first, followed by a contraction in OBV, before prices finally test lower levels. True to this fragile pattern, Bitcoin slipped below $66,000 in early Tuesday trading, following a brief surge on Monday.
