XRP is trading at a critical juncture, with both technical indicators and on-chain metrics signaling a potential turning point. Over recent days, the price has been oscillating between $1.00 and $1.06, a range that analysts view as decisive for the cryptocurrency’s short-term direction. According to Santiment data, XRP touched approximately $1.01 on June 25 and was last observed trading close to $1.04. This marks one of the lowest levels for XRP in the past 19 months.
Short-term recovery signals in technical analysis
Analyst Ali Charts highlights that the Tom DeMark Sequential indicator on the daily XRP chart has triggered a buy signal. The appearance of a “9” candle in this pattern is considered a key sign of short-term downside exhaustion—an indicator closely watched by traders. Historically, this setup has often paved the way for brief price rebounds lasting from one to four days.
Ali Charts notes that the Tom DeMark Sequential “9” signal and the Morning Star Doji pattern on the daily chart suggest a higher probability of XRP forming a local bottom, and if buying volume increases, the price could move toward $1.30.
The analyst points to two distinct bullish reversal signals. Alongside the Tom DeMark Sequential’s buy indication, the last three sessions have formed a Morning Star Doji candlestick pattern—a formation often used in technical analysis to help identify potential local bottoms.
On-chain UTXO Realized Price Distribution data also highlights $1.06 as a key support level for XRP, where over 830 million tokens have recently changed hands. Ali Charts suggests that holding above $1.06 could pave the way for a recovery toward $1.27 and $1.35. Conversely, a daily close below this threshold would leave the price vulnerable to further declines toward $0.80, $0.62, and $0.51.
Mini glossary: UTXO Realized Price Distribution is an on-chain data set tracking the amount of assets last moved at specific price levels. Analysts use this to identify strong support and resistance zones.
| Indicator | Level | Significance |
|---|---|---|
| Main support | $1.06 | Holding above maintains recovery prospects |
| Upside targets | $1.27, $1.35 | Watched if buying interest strengthens |
| Downside risks | $0.80, $0.62, $0.51 | In play if daily close falls below $1.06 |
On-chain activity rises amid ongoing selling pressure
XRP’s on-chain metrics show heightened activity. Ali Charts reports that daily active XRP addresses have surged from around 23,000 to nearly 40,000 in the past two weeks, reflecting an increase of almost 50%. During the same period, the spike in active addresses reached 72%, even as open interest dropped to its lowest point since July 2025. Despite XRP’s ability to stay above the $1 mark, the coin remains stuck below the pivotal $1.10 resistance.
Santiment reports that 4,941 new wallets were created on XRP Ledger in a single day, marking the strongest network growth surge in more than three months. The analysis notes that this surge in wallet creation could signify revived on-chain activity for the XRP Ledger, which underpins all $XRP transactions.
Santiment highlights that this rise in new wallets coincided with XRP trading near its $1 support, and for every negative social comment, there were 3.7 positive ones in the same period.
Nevertheless, the uptick in network activity has yet to outweigh ongoing selling pressure. Ali Charts observes that large investors have continued distributing XRP even as active addresses rise. In the past five days, major wallets are reported to have sold over 30 million XRP, indicating that wallet activity upticks could reflect both new demand and assets being moved to exchanges.
Institutional interest and regulatory developments remain in focus
On the institutional side, interest in XRP has not disappeared entirely. Recent market data indicates a net inflow of $15.34 million into XRP spot ETFs as of June 29. Bitwise led the way with $11.94 million, followed by Canary XRPC with a $3.40 million inflow. Total cumulative net inflows now stand at $1.485 billion.
Market participants are also monitoring progress on the United States CLARITY Act. Crypto analyst Crypto Crusader argues that the broader context around Ripple and XRP is being overlooked, suggesting that Ripple has been working to expand its global regulatory presence ahead of legislative changes. However, the CLARITY Act process has been delayed, as US lawmakers are focused on other regulations after returning from recess.
