CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju stated that for Bitcoin’s price to stage a lasting recovery and firmly return to positive territory, more than $1 trillion in fresh institutional capital would be required. In his July 1 analysis, Ju shared on-chain data highlighting how the amount of capital needed to generate meaningful returns in each Bitcoin cycle has significantly increased over time.
Rising capital requirements
According to Ju’s data, a net inflow of $2.7 billion in 2011 coincided with a staggering 55,436% surge in Bitcoin’s price. In the current cycle, a capital influx of $697 billion has corresponded with a 689% price increase. To double Bitcoin’s price from current levels, approximately $101 billion in net inflow is now necessary—dramatically higher than the $5 million needed back in 2011.
Ki Young Ju emphasized that the next parabolic rally will require even deeper allocations to institutional portfolios, arguing that Bitcoin must establish itself as a core macro asset, rather than being relegated to ETF trading alone.
Ju added that if more than $1 trillion in new capital is injected into Bitcoin’s realized market capitalization, another major bull run remains possible. For context, he pointed out that gold’s market capitalization stands at around $27 trillion.
Glossary: “Realized market capitalization” refers to the total value of coins in circulation, calculated based on the price at which each coin last moved. This metric is frequently used to better understand the market’s aggregate cost basis.
| Period | Net inflow | Price increase |
|---|---|---|
| 2011 | $2.7 billion | 55,436% |
| Current cycle | $697 billion | 689% |
| Net inflow required to double price today | $101 billion | 2x price target |
Capital flows shift toward AI
For now, the institutional capital that Ju deems necessary has not shifted toward Bitcoin. In recent weeks, as gold, silver, and Bitcoin all declined simultaneously, funds moving out of hedge positions have instead gravitated toward artificial intelligence (AI) stocks. Some Bitcoin miners have also redirected computing power to AI hosting services, which offer more predictable revenue than the volatile mining business.
Bitcoin is currently trading near $58,800, over 45% below its October peak above $120,000. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have also seen consistent outflows in recent weeks. According to SoSoValue data, total outflows on June 30 reached $222.64 million, with BlackRock’s IBIT fund alone registering $212.45 million in redemptions.
On-chain signals show mounting sell pressure
On-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr noted in his July 1 report that the 30-day moving average of Bitcoin inflows to exchanges has climbed to 122,000 BTC—52% higher than the roughly 80,000 BTC registered in February. The annual baseline stands at 82,000 BTC, with current values nearing the upper standard deviation band at 131,000 BTC.
The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), which tracks whether coins are being moved at a profit or a loss, has been below the 1.0 breakeven mark on 37 out of the past 61 days. Adler pointed out that while February also saw similar loss-driven selling, exchange inflows were considerably lower at the time. This correction, he warned, features both higher volumes and more persistent stop-loss selling, amplifying downward pressure.
Axel Adler Jr. observed that the current downturn is more severe than February’s, as the market faces both heightened selling pressure and sustained loss-driven exits simultaneously.
Potential new buyer groups
According to Grayscale Research’s Zach Pandl, digital asset treasury companies have been the primary drivers of institutional demand in this cycle. For the next phase, he sees two additional groups as potential major buyers. Grayscale is a leading crypto asset management firm known for its digital asset investment products.
Pandl noted that the first group could be new investors who inherit a portion of the $110 trillion controlled by baby boomers and the silent generation in the coming decades. If just 2% of that wealth flows into crypto assets, it could create $2.2 trillion in new demand. The second group involves corporate treasuries outside the crypto ecosystem—Pandl cited SpaceX, whose 18,712 Bitcoin, valued at approximately $1.4 billion, could serve as a catalyst if the company goes public.
Despite this, there is currently no sign that either of these groups is buying at scale. With AI infrastructure continuing to attract record levels of capital allocation, the trillion-dollar influx that Bitcoin needs appears, for now, to be headed elsewhere.
