XRP posted a strong rally in recent days, in line with a broader recovery trend seen in cryptocurrency markets ahead of July 4. After hitting a low of $1.02 on July 1, the asset climbed for four consecutive days and was trading at $1.14 on July 4.
Buying interest surged near support levels
According to data from Santiment, several weeks of prevailing fear, ETF outflows, cautious institutional stances, and weak sentiment are gradually giving way to renewed buying interest in crypto markets. Buyers stepped in especially near critical support zones, lifting several major cryptocurrencies—including XRP—on the same trading day.
Santiment noted that short- and long-term average returns in XRP dropped to historic lows, indicating a climate of extreme fear that could pave the way for a relief rally.
After remaining stuck between $1.00 and $1.07 for several days, XRP broke out to the upside. The asset has gained more than 8% over the past week, as some investors interpreted deep losses as a potential contrarian signal.
Relief rally follows deep losses
On-chain profitability indicators set the stage for this move. XRP’s 30-day MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio dropped to around minus 45%, while its 365-day MVRV fell to approximately minus 47%. This suggests that the average cost basis for both short- and long-term holders remains above the current price.
Mini glossary: MVRV is an on-chain metric that measures the ratio between market value and realized value. A negative MVRV indicates most investors are in a loss position and can sometimes mean selling pressure is easing.
Santiment highlighted that in more than 12 years of trading history, average returns over these time ranges have never dipped so low for XRP. This points to an unusual degree of fear in the market and casts the recent upturn as a relief bounce.
Technical outlook versus Bitcoin improves
XRP’s latest price action also shows technical strengthening against Bitcoin. On the two-hour XRP/BTC chart, the 50-period moving average has crossed above the 200-period moving average—a short-term “golden cross” signal.
Following its 19-month low of $1.01 on June 25, XRP managed to stay within the $1.00 range, as short-term technical indicators versus Bitcoin suggested a rebound was underway.
During mid-July trading, XRP’s strong gains compared to Bitcoin reversed a decline that had persisted since mid-June. Still, with the price remaining around the $1.00 mark, the move has yet to translate into a broad breakout.
Network growth accelerates despite weak price
Despite recent price disappointments, on-chain data reveals sustained interest in XRP. On the XRP Ledger, 4,941 new wallets were created in a single day—the largest jump in network growth in more than three months.
Even as price performance lags, the influx of new users highlights ongoing ecosystem adoption. The $1.00–$1.05 range is being watched as a potential pullback buying zone, while overall market sentiment reflects the highest level of fear of missing out in the past three months.
