Ethereum is showing signs of recovery after rebounding from its late-June lows, currently seeking direction around the $1,800 zone. At the latest trading sessions, ETH has hovered near $1,780 as buyers attempt to reclaim a significant high-volume resistance area. Although short-term sentiment has improved compared to previous days, analysts say a broader bullish confirmation has yet to emerge.
The $1,800 zone comes into focus
On-chain price distribution data reveals that approximately 4.3 million ETH changed hands around the $1,800 level. This heavy trading history establishes this zone as a significant supply barrier. If Ethereum sustains gains above this threshold, targets of $1,980 and $2,079 could come into play. On the flip side, a rejection at this level could leave Ethereum exposed to further downside, with the $1,237 region standing out as the next major support.
According to CryptoQuant analyst Moreno, the latest rebound has not received structural support from large investors. Moreno points out that for a healthier outlook, exchange reserves should flatten or decline, and whale-sized orders need to resurface.
Technically, the 50-day exponential moving average is currently positioned near $1,806, representing a key short-term resistance level. The 100-day exponential moving average sits around $1,970, suggesting that the medium-term recovery lacks firm momentum so far.
Mini glossary: UTXO Realized Price Distribution is an on-chain metric that shows how much of an asset was transacted at different price levels. It helps identify zones where cost accumulation is significant and pinpoints potential support or resistance areas.
On the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 57. While this indicates some momentum improvement, it stops short of providing a strong confirmation for a sustained upward trend. Meanwhile, the stochastic indicator has climbed to 86, suggesting that Ethereum may be temporarily overextended in the short term.
Support and upside targets
Initial support is seen at $1,741, with the 20-day exponential moving average nearby at $1,713. Should selling pressure increase, traders are watching $1,524 and $1,405 as deeper support levels. In a steeper decline, the $1,156 zone may become relevant again.
| Level type | Zone |
|---|---|
| Main resistance | $1,800 |
| Short-term barrier | $1,806 |
| Upside targets | $1,980 and $2,079 |
| Initial supports | $1,741 and $1,713 |
If demand strengthens and ETH closes consistently above $1,806, further resistance levels at $1,909, $2,018, $2,108, and $2,211 will be under watch for additional upward movement.
Binance reserves rise as demand remains selective
Since the end of June, Ethereum reserves on Binance have increased, causing caution about potential added supply in the market. The exchange’s ETH holdings grew from 3.64 million to 3.87 million, marking a rise of roughly 221,000 ETH or 6.1%. Binance is among the largest cryptocurrency exchanges worldwide by trading volume.
CryptoQuant data indicates that the average order size has shifted toward regions where whale participation is weaker. This trend shows that large investors played a limited role in the latest rebound. While more ETH is present on exchanges, robust high-volume buying has not returned, making breakouts around $1,800 more delicate.
Despite improvements in the derivatives market, open interest remaining flat suggests that Ethereum’s latest rise is not primarily driven by leveraged positions.
Since net long volumes turned positive after June 28, ETH has gained about 14%. However, open interest stayed mostly flat during the recovery, and there was no sharp uptick in estimated leverage ratios after the June drop. This setup indicates that the upside move is not fueled by excessive leveraged long positions.
While this reduces the risk of a major long squeeze, it also signals that investors are remaining cautious. For a more sustainable rally, stronger spot demand and renewed participation from major investors are considered necessary. The fact that US spot ETH ETFs recorded three consecutive days of net inflows has only provided limited improvement in overall market sentiment.
