XRP is approaching a significant long-term support zone as technical analysts monitor whether recent declines have produced a stable bottom. Chart patterns and momentum indicators present early signs of possible recovery, but analysts caution that price confirmation remains essential before any lasting reversal is considered.
Moving averages compress at key support
On the biweekly chart, market analyst EGRAG Crypto observed that XRP’s 50-day exponential moving average (EMA), 100-day EMA, and 144-week moving average (WMA) are converging for the first time in the current market cycle. This compression follows an extended period of consolidation lasting more than two weeks.
Historically, similar moving average compression has preceded major price expansions after macro lows. However, EGRAG Crypto noted that several steps are required for technical confirmation.
The first key signal is a bounce toward the 50 EMA at approximately $1.60. EGRAG Crypto believes a rejection from this level, followed by a retest of the 0.618-to-0.50 Fibonacci support zone, would reinforce the potential for a double-bottom structure near the $1.10 level, close to the lower region of a long-term triangle pattern.
XRP’s 50 EMA, 100 EMA, and 144 WMA have converged during a rare consolidation, an alignment that has previously been followed by strong price moves if confirmed by other signals.
Analysts emphasize that holding the Fibonacci support could establish a durable base, while a failure to maintain this zone would limit bullish prospects. XRP continues to trade above a critical horizontal support band, but it has not broken past the top of its symmetrical triangle on the same timeframe.
EGRAG Crypto set out technical upside targets based on previous cycle expansions, identifying a measured move zone between $5.00 and $6.50. If momentum persists, higher potential extension levels lie at $9, $15, and $31.
These targets remain theoretical without first reclaiming and sustaining key resistance levels. Analysts say focus should remain on whether XRP can break above $1.22 and later $1.60 during subsequent rallies.
Mini dictionary: EMA (Exponential Moving Average) and WMA (Weighted Moving Average) are technical analysis tools that smooth price data to help traders identify trend directions and potential support or resistance levels.
| Level | Status / Potential role |
|---|---|
| $1.10 | Near current support, lower triangle boundary |
| $1.22 | First key resistance to reclaim |
| $1.60 | 50 EMA, target for initial rebound |
| $5.00–$6.50 | Measured move if structure confirms |
| $9, $15, $31 | Higher extension targets |
Weekly RSI divergence and Elliott Wave analysis
Technical strategist Dark Defender provided a separate weekly chart perspective using Elliott Wave counting and the relative strength index (RSI). According to this outlook, the pullback may have marked the end of Wave 4, with potential for an upward surge if a trend change is confirmed.
The chart presents reference points at $0.93, $1.22, $1.88, $2.90, and $5.85, with XRP lately moving around $1.11, between the first two levels.
The lower trendline appears to have sustained XRP’s recent drop, while the price continues to sit below descending resistance. This has forced a compression between persistent support and supply overhead.
Weekly RSI hovers near 34, revealing a hidden bullish divergence, which often signals that downward pressure is easing even as prices retest their lows.
Dark Defender identified that a hidden bullish divergence on the weekly RSI has emerged, which traders view as an early sign that the bearish trend may be losing momentum. With the RSI at a low level, any strengthening could further support the outlook for stabilization, but analysts warn that trend confirmation relies on price advancing past critical resistance zones. A rise above $1.22—and more decisively, $1.60—would be necessary before declaring a robust recovery.
Until then, chart signals indicate possible stabilization rather than full reversal. While the evidence for a developing base has grown, analysts agree that the next phase will be determined by XRP’s ability to overcome its resistance levels on strong volume.
