Glassnode, a leading onchain analytics platform, reported that Bitcoin holders who purchased their coins one to two years ago are beginning to reduce their selling, highlighting a potential shift in market dynamics. Recent data highlights that the realized losses experienced by this cohort have historically signaled bear-market bottoms once the upward trend in losses reverses.
Realized losses offer early market signals
Cryptovizart, the pseudonymous lead research analyst at Glassnode, shared on X that monitoring the realized loss volume in USD by those who have held Bitcoin for one to two years can offer valuable clues about the end of a bear market cycle. This realized loss metric measures when investors sell their assets at a price lower than the purchase price, capturing their loss in the process.
The researcher noted that coins from this group last recorded significant onchain losses between July 2024 and July 2025. During that period, Bitcoin’s price rose from approximately $62,800 to $107,000, leaving many investors holding coins at higher-than-market prices.
Cryptovizart stated that as prices underperformed for an extended time, holders in this group frequently became frustrated, choosing to realize their losses and increasing selling activity. An analysis of onchain data revealed that the 30-day moving average of these realized losses recently exceeded $75 million, followed by a clear downturn—a pattern the analyst considers notable.
When the 30-day simple moving average of realized losses for 1-2 year holders peaks and begins to roll over, historical data shows that the most intense distribution phase is typically over, and market conditions could be shifting toward a potential bottom.
Other technical indicators are also sending signals that a macro Bitcoin price floor may be forming. For example, recent trends in the stochastic relative strength index (RSI) over two-month intervals are producing classic reversal patterns that often precede market turnarounds.
Mini dictionary: Glassnode is an onchain data analytics platform that provides insights on cryptocurrency network activity through blockchain metrics such as holder behavior, realized profits/losses, and cost basis trends.
$69,000 emerges as pivotal resistance
Glassnode’s recent edition of its “Week Onchain” newsletter highlighted the importance of the $69,000 level for Bitcoin. This figure matches the cost basis for short-term holders, which is calculated as the average price paid by recent buyers.
The report noted that this price also lines up with Bitcoin’s previous all-time highs from the 2021 bull cycle. Analysts argued that as Bitcoin approaches $69,000 again, the potential for increased selling grows—especially from holders who would see their paper losses erased by a price rebound to their cost basis.
Glassnode’s team explained that the first encounter with the $69,000 mark is likely to trigger strong selling pressure, as individuals who bought near previous highs may take the opportunity to exit their positions with minimal or no loss.
This convergence of technical resistance and cost basis levels suggests that market participants should keep a close watch on Bitcoin’s performance as it nears this critical zone.
| Group | Cost basis level | Potential market impact |
|---|---|---|
| Short-term holders | $69,000 | High likelihood of selling as price returns to cost |
| Long-term holders (1-2 years) | Varies (mostly above-market) | Cooling in realized losses signals bear market bottom |
With both realized loss trends and cost basis analytics aligning, attention remains focused on whether Bitcoin will break through the $69,000 level or face renewed resistance from newly relieved holders.
