Cardano (ADA) is currently trading between $0.161 and $0.163, reflecting a slight decline of around 1.4% as short positions drive market sentiment ahead of a major network upgrade set for July 18.
Institutional accumulation contrasts retail behavior
ADA traded in a range between $0.1611 and $0.1664 during the latest session, pulling back from early July’s high near $0.195. However, notable accumulation is taking place among large holders. Wallets holding between 100,000 and 100 million ADA have increased their combined balance to 25.65 billion ADA, a level last seen in February 2023. This cohort of investors, often considered “whales,” appears to be taking advantage of the current price dip to expand their positions.
In contrast, retail investors are demonstrating less interest in accumulation. Data shows that wallets with fewer than 100 ADA now own approximately 0.7% less than they did four months ago. This suggests a divergence between institutional and smaller holders regarding the outlook for Cardano.
Large Cardano investors controlling 100,000 to 100 million ADA have now amassed 25.65 billion ADA, marking the highest accumulation rate since February 2023, while retail participation continues to decline.
On the derivatives side, CoinGlass reports show ADA’s weighted funding rate at -0.0067%, indicating that short sellers are paying long traders. The long-to-short ratio stands at 0.58, signaling bearish sentiment, while open interest in ADA futures has risen by about 4% to between $421 million and $445 million.
Van Rossem upgrade scheduled for July 18
The next significant event for the Cardano network is the activation of the Van Rossem hard fork, which was formally approved on July 13. Intersect, the Cardano ecosystem’s member-based governance body, has directed all infrastructure operators to complete necessary software updates before the scheduled upgrade. The Van Rossem update is set to go live at 21:45 UTC on July 18.
Van Rossem will bring reduced transaction fees and upgraded Plutus smart contract features. These improvements are designed to make decentralized applications and network transactions more efficient and affordable. In addition, the upgrade sets the groundwork for a future performance enhancement known as Leios, aimed at boosting Cardano’s transaction processing capacity by the end of 2026.
Mini dictionary: Intersect, established in 2023, is a member-driven governance organization designed to provide decentralized and collaborative oversight for Cardano network operations and upgrades.
The Van Rossem hard fork will introduce enhancements to the Plutus smart contract platform and lower execution costs, paving the way for more scalable applications on Cardano in the future.
Key technical levels and analyst perspectives
ADA is currently trading just below the Murrey Math resistance level at $0.1709 on the daily chart. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in the range of 44.0 to 46.9, reflecting neutral to moderately bearish momentum. The MACD also indicates minimal positive movement at this stage.
Critical resistance areas lie at $0.173 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement), $0.179 (50-day EMA), and a higher band between $0.195 and $0.207. Nearest support stands at $0.150, with a previous cycle low at $0.1382 from June 25. A concentrated liquidity pool is visible in the $0.160–$0.161 range, with substantial interest also clustered near $0.170. Prices falling below $0.160 could trigger long position liquidations, pushing ADA to around $0.1465. A move above $0.170 may lead to a short squeeze and a potential price recovery.
| Level | Type | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Immediate Resistance | Murrey Math | $0.1709 |
| Resistance | Fibonacci (23.6%) | $0.173 |
| Resistance | 50-day EMA | $0.179 |
| Resistance | Range High | $0.195 – $0.207 |
| Support | Nearest Support | $0.150 |
| Support | June Low | $0.1382 |
Market analyst Celal Kucuker recently shared his outlook on X, stating that he believes Cardano could reach a new all-time high of $5, pointing to a bullish divergence visible on the weekly RSI. He views the present price zone as a potential bottom and expects a strong rally to begin from current levels.
Despite these optimistic projections, ADA remains below its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day exponential moving averages, located at $0.179, $0.208, and $0.276 respectively, indicating that the wider downtrend is still intact ahead of the Van Rossem upgrade.
