Ethereum is approaching a potential turning point as its MVRV ratio gets close to a bullish crossover above the 160-day moving average. Technical analysts believe this setup, known as a golden cross, has previously signaled major shifts in price trends for the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency.
Golden cross pattern emerges on Ethereum’s MVRV ratio
The MVRV ratio, a metric comparing Ethereum’s market value to its realized value, is monitored by analysts to determine when the asset is undervalued relative to historical cost bases. Ali, a well-known market analyst, highlighted that the daily MVRV ratio is moving toward a crossover above its 160-day simple moving average (SMA). In the past, similar signals have coincided with the end of market capitulation and the start of new accumulation by investors.
According to Ali Charts, the MVRV momentum indicator helps track shifts in aggregate holder profitability against long-term trend lines. A daily MVRV ratio crossing above its 160-day average has historically marked major recoveries in ETH.
Over the last three years, every time the MVRV ratio cleared this threshold, Ethereum entered a period of sustained price recovery. The current technical setup follows an extended phase in which sellers dominated the market and ETH prices remained subdued.
Mini dictionary: MVRV Ratio, or Market Value to Realized Value Ratio, is a blockchain analytics metric that evaluates whether a cryptocurrency is overvalued or undervalued relative to its aggregate purchased cost, signaling potential market tops or bottoms.
Analysts identify critical ETH price zones
Market observer Ted Pillows has noted the formation of a liquidity cluster between $1,870 and $1,900. According to Pillows, Ethereum could revisit this range amid recent signs of a market correction. Should ETH successfully clear this zone, he believes there may be momentum toward higher resistance levels at $1,980 and $2,000.
Ted Pillows indicated that after a possible sweep of the $1,870–$1,900 area, Ethereum could see renewed buying interest, making a rally toward $1,980 and $2,000 plausible.
At the time of reporting, CoinGecko data shows Ethereum trading at $1,898.54, with a 24-hour volume of $9.53 billion. The token declined 1.10% over the past day but posted a 1.61% gain for the week, suggesting some recovery despite overall weakness.
Ethereum remains below realized value and looks underpriced against Bitcoin
Blockchain analytics provider CryptoQuant has reported that Ethereum currently trades about 17% below its realized price of $2,304. Historically, ETH performing beneath its realized cost basis has aligned with the formation of market bottoms and the potential for a rebound. The present value places Ethereum in the lower half of its realized price range.
Comparing ETH with Bitcoin, the MVRV ratio for the ETH/BTC pair has retreated from a high near 0.95 in August 2025 to roughly 0.65. Although this remains above the 0.45 level seen in previous cyclical lows, it indicates ETH is relatively cheaper compared to BTC.
| Metric | Current Value | Previous Reference |
|---|---|---|
| ETH Price | $1,898.54 | N/A |
| Realized Price | $2,304 | N/A |
| ETH/BTC MVRV Ratio | ~0.65 | 0.95 (Aug 2025), 0.45 (past lows) |
| ETH/BTC Exchange Inflow Ratio | ~0.8 | >1.5 (recent peak), 0.4 (past lows) |
| ETH/BTC ETF Holdings Ratio | 0.13 | 0.115 (June), N/A |
| Weekly Spot Volume (ETH/BTC) | ~0.5 | 1.75 (previous) |
The selling pressure between ETH and BTC is showing signs of moderating, as reflected in the ETH/BTC exchange inflow ratio, which fell from above 1.5 to near 0.8. Meanwhile, institutional interest appears to be rebounding. The ETH/BTC ETF holdings ratio rebounded from 0.115 in June to 0.13. Spot trading volume between the pair dropped sharply from 1.75 to roughly 0.5, indicating lower activity in the market.
CryptoQuant highlighted that two of five tracked on-chain signals now indicate potential bottoming conditions for Ethereum, while others show gradual improvement.
