XRP has shown a recurring pattern of losses every August during US midterm election years dating back to 2014, according to cryptocurrency analyst ChartNerd. This trend, observed across multiple election cycles, has led to speculation about whether August 2026 will continue the sequence or break it.
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AAPLThe Numbers Behind the Pattern
ChartNerd shared detailed figures for XRP’s August monthly closes in midterm years: in August 2014, the token fell 5.7%; in August 2018, it declined 23.0%; and August 2022 saw a 13.7% drop. The average decline across these three periods stands at 14%.
A historical chart provided by ChartNerd marks the pricing bottoms in these years, showing subsequent rallies. After the June 2014 low, XRP surged 936.13%. The August 2018 low was followed by a 210.67% increase, and the June 2022 bottom led to a 96.23% rally. The prices differed significantly during each period, but a consistent recovery emerged after summer lows in each case.
| Year | August Change (%) | Subsequent Rally (%) |
|---|---|---|
| 2014 | -5.7 | 936.13 |
| 2018 | -23.0 | 210.67 |
| 2022 | -13.7 | 96.23 |
ChartNerd emphasized that XRP frequently prints local lows or cycle bottoms between June and August, which have historically set the stage for post-summer price rallies.
ChartNerd is an independent cryptocurrency analyst known for sharing technical trends and historical data on digital assets, particularly on X (formerly Twitter).
Mini dictionary: Midterm election years, in the United States, are those when congressional (but not presidential) elections occur, typically every four years. These cycles sometimes correlate with notable market volatility or seasonal price patterns in various asset classes.
Why June Through August Matters
In a follow-up analysis, ChartNerd outlined the monthly performance dynamics. June often registers weak returns during bear markets, while July tends to provide short-term relief for XRP investors. However, August has established itself as the most consistently negative month, with each midterm-year August since 2014 recording losses.
The analyst described August as maintaining “the longest consecutive active losing streak of any calendar month in history” for XRP. The data brings attention to the cyclical impact that the June-to-August period can have on this cryptocurrency.
ChartNerd argued that this seasonal window holds added importance and that investors should monitor price action closely as these patterns continue to repeat every four years.
What Comes Next
Looking ahead, ChartNerd suggested that if XRP records another loss in August 2026, this would further strengthen the multi-cycle pattern. Even so, the analyst called a negative August close “a common theme” that may indicate future opportunity based on past price recoveries.
Currently, XRP trades at $1.06993, having retreated from a 2025 high above $3.20. The token remains within the historical June–August window where previous bottoms were observed before notable gains.
ChartNerd concluded by urging investors to pay attention during this period, suggesting that cyclical weakness may again precede a rebound.
