Bitcoin continued to trade within the $60,000 to $66,000 range during the current summer lull, leading to a period of low volatility and limited directional movement. This sideways pattern has prompted analysts to explore less conventional technical indicators to better understand the market’s direction.
Bollinger Bands offer new perspective
An analysis using Bollinger Bands on the quarterly chart from TradingView suggests that Bitcoin may have already reached the macro bottom of its current cycle. According to the indicator, the bottom was set on the first day of the third quarter in 2026, when Bitcoin dropped to $57,735 before showing a strong recovery.
This specific move has largely escaped the attention of conventional market observers, who remain focused on short-term volatility and daily price swings. A closer look at the three-month chart reveals that Bitcoin precisely tested a major long-term support level at the start of July.
On July 1, as the new quarterly candle opened, the Bitcoin price briefly touched a local low before buyers stepped in near the middle line of the 3-month Bollinger Bands, currently positioned at $57,431. This technical region played a critical role, attracting significant buying interest and stabilizing the price.
Historical support and future scenarios
By August 11, Bitcoin had rebounded to $64,174, marking nearly a 10% recovery from its recent low. This swift rebound highlighted the strength of capital at these long-term support levels, echoing similar patterns from past cycles. Previous tests of the quarterly moving average occurred near the end of the market downturns in 2015, 2019, and 2022, underscoring the importance of this technical zone.
Historical context underlines that similar rebounds at the quarterly moving average have signaled the final stages of cleansing in past Bitcoin cycles, reinforcing the significance of the current support area.
Despite this positive development, analysts have warned that retail traders should remain alert to potential volatility. Since the ongoing quarterly candle will not close until September 30, its price action remains dynamic and unconfirmed. This leaves the market vulnerable to sudden moves driven by large participants, which could result in unexpected price swings both upwards and downwards before the end of the quarter.
Institutional trends and tokenization
Amid thin summer liquidity, institutional players might capitalize on the opportunity to drive Bitcoin lower, possibly breaking below the July low of $57,735 and triggering stop orders from nervous traders. However, in terms of long-term market structure, only the final closing level of the quarterly candle has technical importance for the next phase.
This environment is a reflection of a much bigger shift in financial markets. Traditional assets that once needed complex brokers for trading are moving to Web3 platforms. Investors can now utilize services such as 1stepSwap, allowing them to hold shares of major U.S. companies, gold, and silver directly in their crypto wallets. These platforms use real-world asset (RWA) tokenization and smart market algorithms to bypass traditional intermediaries and provide the best prices almost instantly.
If Bitcoin closes its current quarter above $57,431, analysts believe the stage will be set for renewed growth in the autumn, confirming that the cycle’s bottom has already been established.
