Bitcoin’s price continues to trade notably below its late-2025 peak, but recent technical and on-chain data indicate that selling pressure is easing. Over recent months, key indicators have signaled reduced momentum from sellers and a market increasingly characterized by consolidation rather than high volatility.
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AAPLTechnical signals show seller exhaustion declining
Glassnode, a leading blockchain analytics firm, reported that its Seller Exhaustion Constant metric has declined sharply in 2026. This indicator, which blends the proportion of Bitcoin supply in profit with 30-day price volatility, currently reads 0.0164. That figure is above the extremely low levels typically observed at major Bitcoin cycle bottoms, but marks a meaningful drop amid ongoing price weakness.
Glassnode emphasized that lower seller exhaustion suggests forced selling is losing strength, but this change alone does not confirm the market has established a durable bottom.
The firm also described the current environment as one where aggressive distribution has moderated, with selling activity transitioning toward a more balanced picture. The price has thus entered what appears to be a consolidation phase, rather than displaying traits of a classic capitulation event seen in previous bear markets.
Analysts warn that Bitcoin may spend extended periods consolidating with gradually declining seller conviction, and that this process does not always immediately transition into bullish moves.
BTC trades in tight range, technical momentum remains neutral
In recent trading, Bitcoin has moved within the $63,000 to $65,000 band. According to a TradingView snapshot, BTC/USD was last observed near $63,587. The overall technical summary remains neutral, despite a majority of sell signals from individual moving averages.
| Indicator | Latest Value | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 47 | Near midpoint, neutral momentum |
| Stochastic %K | 46 | No clear signal |
| ADX | 11 | Weak trend strength |
| Commodity Channel Index | -57 | Neutral to mildly negative |
These readings collectively describe a market that lacks a strong directional trend, reinforcing the picture of consolidation.
Glassnode’s late-July report highlighted that BTC rebounded from approximately $64,000 to $65,100 but did not break out of its established range.
Resistance and support levels define near-term outlook
Technical analysis finds Bitcoin trading below the 10-, 20-, 30-, and 50-day exponential moving averages. The 50-day EMA sits at roughly $64,518, while the 100-day EMA is near $66,672. The 100-day simple moving average stands at $67,402, and the 200-day EMA and SMA are recorded at $72,012 and $69,747, respectively. This cluster of overhead averages forms a significant resistance zone.
| Moving Average | Value |
|---|---|
| 50-day EMA | $64,518 |
| 100-day EMA | $66,672 |
| 100-day SMA | $67,402 |
| 200-day EMA | $72,012 |
| 200-day SMA | $69,747 |
The 50-day simple moving average, around $63,336, has stood out as a nearby support, generating a buy signal amid otherwise bearish indicators among the major averages. Sustained movement through the mid-$60,000s would be needed to improve the near-term technical structure.
Large wallets increase accumulation during price weakness
On-chain data from Santiment, a blockchain analytics platform, shows that wallets holding at least 10,000 BTC rose to a six-month high of 90, an increase of six wallets (7.1%) over eight weeks. This points to greater supply concentration among major holders during the ongoing market turmoil, while smaller wallets have seen some decline in holdings.
Mini dictionary: Santiment is an on-chain and social data analytics platform focused on providing insights into cryptocurrency market behavior.
Glassnode noted in July that long-term holders had resumed accumulating BTC, indicating that patient buyers are absorbing some of the available supply. However, analysts caution that the growth in large wallets may reflect address transfers, shifts in custody, or other structural factors rather than outright accumulation alone.
Analyst perspectives and cycle analysis
Some market analysts consider the current conditions typical of the late stage of a bear market. Ali Martinez, a cryptocurrency market analyst, published a cycle chart suggesting Bitcoin’s 2025 peak near $125,000 and the post-peak decline in 2026 may represent the latter part of the current cycle. The chart indicates potential for recovery and new highs by 2027, but acknowledges that such historic patterns are difficult to replicate in changing market environments.
Glassnode’s recent research described Bitcoin as progressing through a “bottom building” phase, but noted this process is not yet finished. The firm cited accelerating losses for long-term holders and ongoing negative ETF flows as indicators of persistent caution among investors.
Consequently, while bottoming signals are present, the available data does not confirm that a new cycle low is already established.
Key pivot points for Bitcoin price
Classic pivot analysis identifies the central pivot at $62,491. Resistance zones are located at $67,248, $71,677, and $80,863, while support levels are found at $58,061, $53,305, and $44,119. Since BTC is trading above the central pivot but below the primary resistance, these levels serve as crucial markers for traders monitoring potential breakout or breakdown scenarios.
| Level | Value |
|---|---|
| Central Pivot | $62,491 |
| 1st Resistance | $67,248 |
| 2nd Resistance | $71,677 |
| 3rd Resistance | $80,863 |
| 1st Support | $58,061 |
| 2nd Support | $53,305 |
| 3rd Support | $44,119 |
A sustained move through $67,000 would likely improve the near-term technical outlook, bringing $71,000-$72,000 into focus. Falling below $62,500 would weaken the current consolidation theme and raise the risk of further downside toward the upper $50,000s.
Outlook: Consolidation persists as upside and downside risks remain
Bitcoin’s price action remains in a consolidation phase near $64,000. On-chain and technical signals, including increased large-holder activity and declining aggressive selling, provide some support for stabilization, even as the price remains well below previous highs.
Most momentum indicators and moving averages remain neutral or bearish, with the $66,000-$67,000 range marking a key resistance area for any attempted recovery. Support around $62,500 and $58,000 will be watched for confirmation of downside risk.
Analysts generally caution that further evidence—such as renewed spot demand and a reclaim of important moving averages—is needed before declaring a market reversal. As the current consolidation continues, traders are likely to monitor liquidity and volatility for signs of a new trend forming.
