Markus Thielen, head of research at digital asset analysis firm 10x Research, has challenged predictions that Bitcoin could reach $1 million by the end of the decade, stating that the mathematics behind such forecasts do not add up.
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AAPLWhy $1 million is out of reach
Thielen explained that Bitcoin would require an unprecedented scale of capital inflows to reach a $1 million price point within the next six years. He calculated that over the past 15 years, the total inflows into Bitcoin amounted to roughly $1 trillion, resulting in its current market capitalization, which stands at about $1.28 trillion. As of now, Bitcoin changes hands at $63,868, according to CoinMarketCap.
Pushing the price to $1 million per Bitcoin would require an additional $15 trillion of net inflow over the next four years. Thielen pointed out this figure represents around a quarter of the entire US stock market’s total value, making such growth rates impractical.
“It takes trillions and trillions of dollars to move the price materially higher,” Thielen noted, emphasizing that this scale of fresh investment is highly unlikely given existing market structures.
“It’s mathematically impossible. We have seen $1 trillion US dollars of inflow to bring the market cap really to $1 trillion. To get to $1 million [per] Bitcoin, it’s 15x from here.”
For comparison, Bitcoin has declined 2.35% over the past 30 days, reflecting a broader cooling in retail and institutional interest.
Retail psychology and investor sentiment
Thielen also commented on the dwindling appetite from retail investors as Bitcoin’s valuation climbs. He suggested that many individuals become hesitant to invest in the cryptocurrency at higher price points, especially when the cost of one whole Bitcoin outstrips significant personal purchases such as cars.
He remarked that people often prefer owning a full unit of an asset rather than fractions, a sentiment that may limit further adoption if prices continue to surge. Thielen stated, “People don’t want to buy a tenth or a hundredth of a Bitcoin; they want to buy a whole Bitcoin. You don’t want to buy a fraction of a painting.”
He also observed that the concept of “Satoshis”—the smallest divisible unit of Bitcoin—lacks broad appeal compared to owning a whole Bitcoin.
Looking ahead, Thielen warned investors not to assume that Bitcoin will quickly reclaim record highs in future cycles due to the greater market capitalization and capital required. He does not expect to see the previous all-time high of $126,000 return in the near term without significant new inflows.
“Usually, it takes some time because we are at a higher market cap, and that usually takes a lot of money to push the Bitcoin price higher. If we go back to, let’s say, $100,000, that would already be a big achievement.”
Bold predictions from industry leaders
Predictions for a $1 million Bitcoin by 2030 have been made by key industry figures such as Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, former Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey, and ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood. Thielen stated that these ambitious forecasts often serve to attract media attention, but they may also set unrealistic expectations for retail investors.
He argued that “round numbers and the higher the number, the more it’s being quoted by the press,” adding that such optimistic price targets can mislead individual investors into believing substantial gains are inevitable if only a portion of these predictions comes true.
Thielen explained that his team at 10x Research maintains a more cautious approach, noting they entered the year with relatively conservative projections that have proven prudent in hindsight.
When asked about the possibility of Bitcoin reaching $1 million, Thielen responded that while he would not rule it out completely, such a price point remains “really a high number.”
Mini dictionary: 10x Research is a digital asset research and analysis firm that provides institutional-level reports and market insights in the cryptocurrency sector.
