Asset manager VanEck reported that Bitcoin may be entering an accumulation phase, as eight out of its twelve capitulation indicators remained active as of August 12. The company observed that Bitcoin’s ongoing correction has persisted for ten months since the peak registered in October 2025.
Status of Bitcoin capitulation indicators
VanEck explained that a capitulation signal activates when Bitcoin’s metrics reach an extreme historical percentile. For most signals, values must fall into the lowest 15% of historical data; for indicators associated with higher stress, they must be in the lowest 10%.
For example, the price drawdown indicator is triggered when Bitcoin falls at least 35% from its all-time high. In October, Bitcoin’s price was about 49% below its historic peak, placing its drawdown in the 35th percentile of historical episodes. Based on these percentile criteria, VanEck said only seven signals would remain active. The firm highlighted that increased institutional ownership and spot exchange-traded product (ETP) demand could soften the ongoing downturn, resulting in a less severe bear market than previous cycles.
Historical data shows that Bitcoin bear market drawdowns have ranged between 78% and 94%. VanEck currently assumes a milder low, although this is not a forecast but rather an observation based on current market conditions.
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AAPLVanEck noted that despite numerous signals reaching extreme levels, “the dataset can signal the late cycle but cannot pinpoint the bottom point.” The firm cautioned that “the September-to-November period will provide the next test for its Bitcoin outlook.”
VanEck’s outlook and returns analysis
VanEck assessed the potential for a market reversal between September and November, suggesting that patterns from previous cycles could repeat. However, the firm emphasized that this timeline is not a firm price prediction for Bitcoin.
Analysis of price performance following the activation of eight to twelve capitulation signals over past cycles showed that Bitcoin delivered an average return of 12.8% over the subsequent 90 days. This figure trails the baseline average return of 15.2%. Over a 180-day horizon, Bitcoin’s average return after such signals rose to 32%, still below the baseline of 36.3%. Outperformance appeared primarily over one-year periods, though VanEck did not attribute significant value to this finding due to the limited and overlapping dataset.
VanEck stated that there is no significant short-term advantage indicated by these signals. The results reflect only a few market episodes with substantial overlap, so making high-conviction predictions based on the data remains challenging.
Spot-based Bitcoin ETP flows and holder behavior
VanEck also highlighted shifts in US spot-based Bitcoin ETP flows. The firm reported $663 million in net inflows over a recent 30-day period, which equated to about 10,400 BTC. This reversed the previous month’s outflows of $2.4 billion. During the week ending August 14, US spot-based funds recorded a decline of $385.2 million, but demand recovered toward the end of the period.
| Date/Period | Net Inflows/Outflows | BTC Amount |
|---|---|---|
| Past 30 days | $663 million inflow | 10,400 BTC |
| Previous month | $2.4 billion outflow | N/A |
| Week ending Aug. 14 | $385.2 million outflow | N/A |
| Aug. 17 | $297.5 million inflow | N/A |
| Aug. 18 | $189.3 million inflow | N/A |
VanEck referenced Farside data showing that net inflows totalled $486.8 million over August 17 and 18, offsetting previous outflows. During the period, Bitcoin traded around $64,250 on August 19, surpassing VanEck’s tracked close on August 11 of $63,549.
The company also observed significant movement in long-term Bitcoin holdings. Over a 30-day span, wallets holding coins for more than one year saw holdings decrease by 356,534 BTC, bringing the total to 11.84 million BTC, or 59.1% of circulating supply. Every long-term holder age group recorded a decline, with the one to two-year group falling the most by approximately 156,000 BTC.
VanEck suggested that some changes in wallet holdings could result from internal security transfers rather than outright selling, although verifying this remains difficult.
Mini dictionary: VanEck is a US-based investment management firm known for its expertise in exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and other investment products. The company frequently analyzes cryptocurrency market trends and offers insights into digital assets through institutional research reports.
