Solana (SOL) encountered strong resistance after briefly rising above $102, retreating to around $97 and invalidating its most recent attempt to solidify a move beyond the $100 mark. Despite this rejection, analysts caution that it is too early to call an end to the current bullish momentum.
Stronger rally faces key technical hurdle
Solana gained approximately 27% in the last 30 days and 26% over the past week. This impressive rally helped the cryptocurrency break through several notable technical barriers, most notably surpassing its long-term moving average, which currently sits at $89.50. Market participants view this as a critical achievement in the ongoing upward trend.
However, the failed breakout above $100 has raised some immediate concerns regarding Solana’s short-term outlook. The asset’s relative strength index (RSI) is currently near 79, suggesting that momentum has reached overbought territory. Following such rapid gains from the mid-$70 range, the market is witnessing typical signs of profit-taking and deleveraging.
Derivatives market shows aggressive positioning
Data from derivatives exchanges indicate assertive long positioning among traders. On Binance, one of the largest global cryptocurrency exchanges, the SOL/USDT long/short ratio stands at about 2.07. This means that there are significantly more traders betting on Solana’s price increase than on a decline. Reflecting the volatility, liquidation data shows that about $17.51 million in SOL futures positions were unwound within a single day.
ETH
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AAPLIn parallel, the 12-hour futures market recorded a net outflow of roughly $60.77 million. If the price continues to weaken, further forced liquidations of leveraged long positions could follow. Nevertheless, the broader price chart has not yet confirmed a bearish reversal for Solana.
| Metric | Current Value | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term moving average | $89.50 | Above: Uptrend intact |
| RSI | 79 | Overbought conditions |
| 24h SOL liquidations | $17.51 million | High volatility |
| Binance long/short ratio | 2.07 | More longs than shorts |
| 12h futures net outflow | $60.77 million | Potential further liquidations |
Mini dictionary: Binance, founded in 2017, is one of the world’s largest centralized cryptocurrency exchanges by trading volume, offering services including spot, derivatives, and futures trading for digital assets such as Solana (SOL).
Key support and risk levels
At present, Solana remains above its long-term moving average at $89.49, while shorter-term averages are clustered around $78 and $84. The recent rally coincided with a significant uptick in trading volume, indicating broad participation in the uptrend. Analysts identify the $89-$90 range as the immediate support area rather than $100.
If SOL holds above its former resistance between $89 and $90, the recent rejection may be seen as a common post-breakout pullback. In this scenario, buyers are likely to consolidate before any renewed effort to push the price through the $100–$103 zone.
“With trading volume surging during the breakout and SOL staying above its long-term moving average, the $89–$90 area should be monitored as the most critical near-term support,” analysts noted.
However, a daily close below $89 would weaken the bullish argument and leave the cryptocurrency vulnerable to further declines toward $84 and the $78–$80 price cluster. In this case, Solana would move back below its primary long-term trend indicator.
As things stand, although the $100 level has been rejected, it has not been eliminated as a near-term target. For the bullish case to remain valid, Solana must demonstrate that its breakout above $89 reflects a genuine structural shift rather than a fleeting surge.
