Global investment bank Bernstein has released a new report forecasting that Bitcoin could reach $150,000 by mid-2027, with a further rise to $300,000 projected for 2029. Bernstein attributes this bullish outlook to the growing sovereign debt crisis and increasing institutional demand for digital assets.
Quantum risk clouds long-term outlook
While Bernstein’s report outlines a potential supercycle for Bitcoin over the next three years, several industry figures are raising warnings about security concerns that could affect these projections. Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards stated that Bitcoin’s ability to achieve these price milestones is conditional on the network implementing quantum-resistant cryptography to ward off advancing technological threats.
Edwards estimates that the market’s awareness of quantum computing threats is already having a tangible effect, artificially suppressing Bitcoin’s price by 30%. He described this as a “risk discount,” which he attributes to doubts about protocol security among major market players.
Edwards argues that unless Bitcoin Core adopts robust quantum resistance in time, institutional investors may not view these long-term price targets as attainable, and he estimated the present price carries a hidden 30% discount due to security fears.
Institutional funds, key drivers in Bernstein’s growth model, reportedly remain highly sensitive to any potential vulnerabilities in Bitcoin’s protocol. Previous analyses suggest that between 20% and 30% of all Bitcoin holdings are exposed to Shor’s quantum algorithm. This vulnerability is especially pronounced in early wallets, such as those believed to belong to Bitcoin’s creator, Satoshi Nakamoto, whose public keys are accessible on the blockchain.
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AAPLMini dictionary: Shor’s quantum algorithm, a quantum computing method, threatens traditional cryptography by potentially allowing rapid decryption of public-key systems, making certain cryptocurrencies with exposed public keys vulnerable to theft once quantum computers reach sufficient scale.
Ongoing upgrades across crypto protocols
The blockchain industry is already responding to these risks. The Ethereum Foundation recently adjusted its strategy for Layer 1 network protection, deciding to phase out the use of the Poseidon2 cryptographic function in favor of SHA-256 and BLAKE. The foundation aims to fully implement these changes through an upgrade scheduled for 2029.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin Core developers are in active discussions regarding new security measures. BIP-360, a proposal on the table, would introduce post-quantum addresses using the ML-DSA algorithm. Another proposal, BIP-361, suggests freezing at-risk legacy coins five years after the changes are enacted. In a bid to accelerate development in this area, Galaxy Digital has allocated $5 million to its Bitcoin Quantum Readiness initiative.
Mini dictionary: BIP (Bitcoin Improvement Proposal) is a standard for suggesting changes and upgrades to the Bitcoin protocol, reviewed and discussed by developers before potential adoption.
On-chain data signals key resistance
While Bernstein’s macroeconomic analysis presents an optimistic view for Bitcoin, on-chain data from analytics firm Glassnode offers a more restrained short- and medium-term perspective. Glassnode’s MVRV pricing band charts indicate that the mathematically justified price peak for Bitcoin’s current cycle currently lies between $134,000 and $180,000.
To reach this range, the market must first break through resistance at $70,920—a level where the majority of existing investor positions are based. Historically, this price zone has resulted in heightened selling activity as holders lock in profits.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Bernstein 2027 Price Target | $150,000 |
| Bernstein 2029 Price Target | $300,000 |
| Glassnode Cycle Peak Range | $134,000 – $180,000 |
| Key Resistance | $70,920 |
This alignment of macro optimism with technical barriers highlights the dilemma facing Bitcoin: its long-term ascent toward $300,000 depends not just on institutional interest and economic factors, but also on whether the protocol can implement effective cryptographic upgrades to address emerging threats from quantum computing.
Glassnode’s latest analysis points to $70,920 as a pivotal resistance for initiating further gains, with a cycle peak projected between $134,000 and $180,000 if surpassed.
