Bitcoin has stabilized around $78,000 following a pullback from its recent three-month high of $81,500. Despite this correction, the world’s largest cryptocurrency has gained approximately 31% since August 1, when it traded near $62,229.
Large holders accumulate, retail investors reduce exposure
On-chain data suggests a notable divergence among Bitcoin investors. Addresses holding substantial amounts of BTC have continued to increase their positions during the rally. In contrast, smaller wallets containing between 0.1 and 1 BTC have shown sustained selling activity, recording an Accumulation Trend Score of -0.982. This figure signals ongoing distribution by retail participants even as prices have climbed.
This dynamic, where larger institutional or whale wallets accumulate while retail investors sell, often marks a shift in coins from speculative hands to those with longer-term conviction.
Addresses with significant BTC holdings are adding to their positions, while retail-sized wallets between 0.1 and 1 BTC have continued to offload assets throughout the current rally.
Blockchain analysis further reveals that between August 16 and August 26, six previously dormant Bitcoin wallets—unused since 2011 to 2014—became active to move a total of 553.59 BTC. Five of these wallets transferred funds to unidentified destinations, while one sent 40 BTC to Boerse Stuttgart Digital, a digital asset trading platform. At current prices, their combined activity represents a value of approximately $40 million.
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AAPLGalaxy Research, a provider of digital asset insights, reported that Bitcoin’s dormant supply movements during Q2 2026 reached the lowest level since 2022. Year-to-date projections indicate that the annual volume of coins leaving dormant wallets could drop to less than half that recorded in 2025.
Stronger correlation with gold, weakening link to Nasdaq 100
Recent findings from Grayscale show that Bitcoin’s 90-day correlation with gold climbed above 50%, a substantial change from near-zero at the start of 2026. Over the same period, the cryptocurrency’s association with the Nasdaq 100 stock index fell to roughly 33%, compared to values above 60% in previous months.
This evolving relationship has been shaped by increasing concerns over US government spending, with the national debt rising beyond $40 trillion. Such developments have directed capital flows towards scarce assets like gold and Bitcoin as investors seek alternatives to traditional risk assets.
BTC’s correlation with gold surpassed 50% while its correlation with the Nasdaq 100 declined to 33%, coinciding with rising US fiscal pressures and shifts in investor preferences for safe-haven assets.
Prominent cryptocurrency analyst Ted Pillows recently pointed out that Bitcoin encountered sharp resistance at the $81,500 level, noting that the $74,000 to $75,000 range is now viewed as critical support. He argued that sustaining this zone could allow the cryptocurrency to resume its upward movement.
Mini dictionary: Accumulation Trend Score, a metric used in blockchain analytics to measure whether specific wallet segments are accumulating or distributing a cryptocurrency over a set period. Scores near +1 suggest accumulation, while scores near -1 indicate distribution.
Key support levels and price targets
Market participants are closely watching the $73,880 level, which marks the -0.5 MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) band. Holding above this threshold has been identified as crucial for sustaining the ongoing recovery trend. Analysts suggest that a daily close above $84,000, especially if supported by strong trading volumes, could clear the path for a further move toward the $100,000 price area.
| Price Level | Status | Significance |
|---|---|---|
| $73,880 | Support | -0.5 MVRV band; tested in recent pullback |
| $81,500 | Resistance | Three-month high and recent rejection area |
| $84,000 | Potential Breakout | Daily close above may lead to $100,000 target |
Brian Armstrong, CEO of US-based cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase, shared his view that Bitcoin holds strong prospects of reaching $100,000 before the end of the year. Binance founder Changpeng Zhao similarly commented that Bitcoin could eventually surpass gold’s total market capitalization in value. As of August 29, Bitcoin traded at $78,062, marking a 0.9% daily increase.
