Analysts are closely monitoring whether XRP can establish a sustained base above its recent lows, as technical and on-chain signals create an inflection point for the token’s next move. Attention is focused on both short-term resistance and a possible long-term recovery, as market participants weigh several key indicators.
Short-Term Technicals: $1.40 Resistance Holds the Key
XRP traded between $1.35 and $1.36 in early September, having retreated from a local high of $1.70. This decline returned the token to a price zone where multiple technical support and resistance levels converge.
On the four-hour chart, analyst @TheMoonHailey identified a symmetrical triangle formation, with $1.40 highlighted as the vital breakout level. According to this analysis, a move above $1.40 could clear a path toward $1.45 and $1.55, while failure to hold support around $1.34 and $1.28 could expose the token to further losses.
The symmetrical triangle’s apex signals an impending major move, but narrowing ranges alone cannot predict direction. Historically, XRP has struggled to convert $1.40 from resistance to support, making this region pivotal for near-term forecasts.
With price action compressing near the apex of the triangle, both buyers and sellers are awaiting confirmation for the next significant move. The immediate outlook hinges on whether bullish momentum can push through established resistance.
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AAPL13-Month Cycle Suggests Longer-Term Bottom
TradingView analyst Fractical has outlined a 13-month cycle in XRP’s historical trading pattern. According to the analysis, major lows and highs have clustered around the cycle’s markers, with the recent swing low potentially signifying a completed bottoming phase. If the cycle pattern holds, the expectation is for a five-wave advance to unfold over the coming year.
Fractical interprets the latest market action as a completed corrective phase, setting the stage for a potential multi-stage advance. However, this projection assumes historical cycle timing continues to play out, which cannot be guaranteed.
The Elliott Wave structure forms the basis of this outlook, with the analyst highlighting that the bottom does not guarantee an immediate and uninterrupted rally but rather a sequence of advances and corrections over several months.
Mini dictionary: Elliott Wave structure, a technical analysis method that identifies recurring price wave patterns in financial markets, often used by traders to forecast potential future moves.
Despite the technical foundation for this view, analysts advise that timing cycles should be treated with caution, as new price data can alter the anticipated path.
EMA Levels Define Critical Support and Target Zones
Shorter-term momentum is being tested by recent moving average signals. ChartNerdTA has pointed to a ‘death cross’ on the four-hour chart, with the $1.31–$1.32 region—corresponding to the daily 20 EMA—serving as a key support level. A loss of this support would weaken the bullish structure, while a recovery above resistance could open the way for a move to the 50-week EMA near $1.54.
The $1.54 level marks a higher-timeframe moving average, regarded by technical analysts as an important barrier that could confirm an improving long-term trend if breached decisively.
| Level | Technical Significance |
|---|---|
| $1.31–$1.32 | Daily 20 EMA, key support |
| $1.40 | Symmetrical triangle breakout/resistance |
| $1.54 | 50-week EMA, longer-term target |
Analyst levels suggest that an upside reclaim of these moving averages could reinforce the bullish argument, while the loss of support increases downside risk.
Bearish Near-Term Structure Remains a Threat
A separate TradingView analysis identified a bearish break of structure at $1.3352, as the price dipped below its previous swing low. The subsequent bounce toward $1.3758 is seen as a potential retest of the broken level rather than evidence of a trend reversal.
Further resistance is noted at the EMA21 and EMA55—currently at $1.3655 and $1.3697. A sustained four-hour close above $1.3697, then $1.3810, would be required to improve the short-term technical bias. Otherwise, a renewed decline below $1.3265 would invalidate any prospects of recovery.
On-Chain Data: Binance XRP Reserves Fall to 2024 Lows
CryptoQuant data shows a sharp decrease in XRP reserves on Binance, dropping from 3.17 billion in November 2025 to 2.61 billion by September 2026. This reduction of about 551 million XRP, or 17.4%, took reserves to their lowest point since February 2024.
CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost characterized this as a “relatively positive signal” for XRP, with the caveat that the implications are likely long-term in nature. Lower exchange balances can sometimes reflect investor moves to private wallets or long-term storage, but not all withdrawals can be attributed to accumulation, as operational transfers can impact these figures as well.
Mini dictionary: CryptoQuant, a blockchain data analytics company that provides on-chain metrics and exchange reserve data for major cryptocurrencies.
While declining reserves can act as a generally supportive on-chain indicator, analysts stress that it is not in itself a direct trigger for a major price move.
XRP Outlook: Key Levels to Watch
The immediate XRP price outlook depends on the token’s ability to convert resistance at $1.36–$1.40 into support. Bulls will then aim for $1.45 and the high-timeframe resistance at $1.54–$1.55. Surpassing the 50-week EMA at $1.54 would be viewed as a stronger indication of long-term trend reversal.
If the token fails to break through resistance, attention returns to support levels near $1.34 and $1.32. A sustained drop below $1.28 could weaken arguments that the recent swing low completed the bottom formation.
Taken together, analysts see the 13-month cycle as providing a bullish long-term argument, but short-term recovery hinges on reclaiming $1.40 and sustaining higher levels. Overall, traders are watching closely to see if consolidation leads to a renewed uptrend or marks another failed recovery.
