Bitcoin traded steadily around the $79,000 level after inflation data for August marginally exceeded market forecasts, prompting renewed focus on macroeconomic factors and investor activity. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.4% for the month and 5.4% over the previous year.
Inflation Data Keeps Market Cautious
Both the monthly and annual PPI figures either matched or slightly surpassed analyst expectations, according to recent releases. Energy prices played a significant role in the increase, with diesel prices soaring by 24.1% in August and overall energy costs up 4.2% for the month.
Matt Mena, senior crypto research strategist at 21Shares, described the report as “slightly hotter than expected” and suggested that much of the market had already accounted for higher inflation, especially due to rising oil costs. He observed that bitcoin could attempt a move toward $82,000 by the end of September, though a temporary pullback towards $75,000 is possible before further gains.
Matt Mena at 21Shares commented that the August PPI data was “slightly hotter than expected,” noting: “Markets had priced in much of the upside because of oil, but a move to $82,000 by month-end is increasingly likely, with a dip to $75,000 possible on the way up.”
Bitcoin has rebounded from a low of $77,603, moving toward the $80,000 level as traders assessed the balance between inflation indicators and persistent demand for spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
ETF Flows and Altcoin Activity
US spot cryptocurrency ETFs registered net inflows of $1.24 billion in the week ending September 4, with bitcoin-focused products accounting for $986.85 million or approximately 79% of that amount. During the first six trading days of September, bitcoin ETFs attracted $603.3 million in inflows.
However, two consecutive days of outflows followed, with $46.6 million withdrawn on September 8 and $120.24 million on September 9. This brought total net assets for these funds down slightly from $99.52 billion to $99.33 billion. Despite bitcoin outflows, products tied to ether, XRP, and solana managed to collect new funds over the same period.
| Metric | Week Ending Sep 4 | First 6 Sep Days | Outflows (Sep 8-9) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Crypto ETF Inflows | $1.24 billion | $603.3 million (BTC only) | -$166.84 million (BTC only) |
| BTC Fund Share | $986.85 million | – | – |
| Net Assets | $99.52 billion | – | $99.33 billion after outflows |
Mena’s forecast for the fourth quarter targets $100,000 for BTC, $3,500 for ETH, $100 for Hyperliquid (HYPE), and $130 for solana (SOL). He also highlighted $2,500 as a resistance level ETH must overcome before targeting $3,000.
Mini dictionary: 21Shares, an asset manager specializing in cryptocurrency exchange-traded products (ETPs) and ETFs, provides investors regulated access to digital assets across several markets.
Exchange Inflows and Whale Positioning
Deposits of medium-sized bitcoin holdings to major exchanges saw a notable decline. Transfers to Binance, Coinbase Pro, and Coinbase Prime dropped 15.5% since early August, with Binance itself experiencing a nearly 30% reduction from 4,390 BTC to 3,080 BTC.
The decrease in exchange inflows created a 1,160 BTC net difference among platforms, reflecting a shift in trading activity rather than a marked increase in overall selling. Large holders, typically known as whales, maintained steady balances of around 5.22 million BTC since September 2, showing little new accumulation by these influential market participants.
Altcoins have recently posted stronger returns than bitcoin. Ethereum recorded gains of 29% compared to bitcoin’s 20% move over the past three weeks, and Hyperliquid (HYPE) neared the $90 level.
| Asset | 3-Week Gain | Current Price |
|---|---|---|
| Ethereum | 29% | – |
| Bitcoin | 20% | $79,000-$80,000 |
| Hyperliquid (HYPE) | – | Near $90 |
Upcoming Data and Market Outlook
The market now turns its attention to the August Consumer Price Index (CPI), due for release on Friday at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. This will be followed by a two-day meeting of the Federal Reserve starting September 15, which could further influence market sentiment.
Analysts highlighted that deposits of mid-sized bitcoin have dropped sharply on exchanges since August, suggesting reduced sell pressure as the next CPI report and Federal Reserve meeting approach.
