XRP posted one of its most extreme momentum indicators on record this week, touching levels unseen throughout its trading history while maintaining position above a major long-term technical support.
XRP’s momentum at historic lows
Cryptollica, an independent on-chain analyst, highlighted that XRP’s two-week Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen to the lowest mark in 13 years, registering below figures recorded during previous significant downturns, including the 2018 bear market, the COVID-19 crash of March 2020, and the 2022 sector downturn.
XRP is currently trading near $1.30 following a rapid correction earlier in the week. The RSI on the two-week timeframe is close to 33.5, based on Cryptollica’s analysis, indicating a deeply oversold condition by historical standards.
XRP’s two-week RSI has dropped below levels seen during every major selloff since 2011, pushing the market into territory that raises fresh questions about potential exhaustion among sellers or risks of deeper declines.
This development stands out as the indicator reflects both an unusually weak momentum reading and continued defense of a technical structure. The long-term rising channel in which XRP has traded since early cycles remains intact, acting as a support through several market drawdowns.
Key price levels to watch
Earlier this week, XRP’s price fell sharply from approximately $1.49 to an intraday low close to $1.27, before partially recovering to the current $1.30 mark. Such price action leaves XRP testing the lower boundary of its multiyear upward channel.
While an extreme RSI often attracts attention as a signal for a potential reversal, analysts caution that momentum indicators alone do not confirm a market bottom. Prices can continue to fall for extended periods despite deeply oversold readings.
Technical analysis also highlights the 20-week exponential moving average (EMA) near $1.29 as a crucial threshold. Closing below this level on a weekly basis could open the door to a further correction toward the psychological $1.00 region.
| Technical Level | Value | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| 20-week EMA | $1.29 | Support; break could trigger more selling |
| Key Resistance | $1.34 – $1.36 | Near-term resistance |
| Recovery Zone | $1.38 – $1.40 | Potential rebound area |
| Support Target | $1.00 | Next major support if $1.29 fails |
Resistance between $1.34 and $1.36, along with a stronger potential recovery zone around $1.38 to $1.40, will challenge any rebound effort. These price areas have previously acted as pivot points for the token.
Outlook for XRP
XRP now stands at what traders consider a critical juncture for its technical outlook. If the $1.29 support holds, and the two-week RSI begins to improve, market observers may view this period as a sign of seller exhaustion. Conversely, a convincing breakdown below this level could shift attention toward lower support zones and diminish the relevance of the long-standing rising channel.
Current conditions leave XRP at a rare intersection of historically weak momentum and a still-viable multi-cycle price structure, making the next few sessions pivotal for its trend direction.
XRP’s fate over the coming weeks likely depends on whether buyers defend these key thresholds or if continued weakness drives further declines.
Mini dictionary: Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. Values below 30 are typically considered oversold, while those above 70 are viewed as overbought. The two-week RSI provides a longer-term momentum perspective than the daily or weekly RSI.
