Bitcoin has closed above its 365-day moving average for the first time since March 2023, breaking through a critical long-term trendline that has accurately signaled every major bull market since 2019.
Breakout and new price zones
The cryptocurrency surged into the $85,897 range, wiping out a significant block of sell orders that had constrained the market since mid-August. This decisive move not only surpassed the psychological barrier at $80,500 but also confirmed a strong upward trajectory, as reported by on-chain analytics firms Glassnode and CryptoQuant.
Analysts at both firms observed that absorbing this volume of sell-side liquidity signals renewed confidence among buyers, positioning Bitcoin in what they describe as a confirmed uptrend.
Glassnode and CryptoQuant state that the successful breakout above $80,500 has officially shifted the market structure into a clear, sustained uptrend for the first time since the lengthy consolidation began in 2023.
On-chain metrics signal uptrend
The market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio has crossed above its long-term average, entering a phase of consistent upward momentum. Glassnode noted that this same MVRV pattern appeared at the start of significant macro trends for Bitcoin in both 2019 and 2023, coinciding with the network’s recovery from extended capital accumulation phases.
The MVRV ratio compares Bitcoin’s current market value with the total value at which all coins were last moved, representing the average cost basis of holders. When this figure turns positive, it shows that the majority of network participants are again realizing profits — a signal of market strength.
Mini dictionary: MVRV ratio, an on-chain metric that divides Bitcoin’s current market capitalization by the realized capitalization (the value of all coins at the price when they last moved) to gauge whether the asset is overvalued or undervalued relative to the average holder’s cost basis.
New market mechanics and evolving risks
Sellers are now reportedly unwilling to sell below current prices, while the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) index suggests any profit-taking is quickly absorbed by strong spot demand. This dynamic has shifted market sentiment away from euphoria toward a more pragmatic outlook, according to on-chain data.
Large holders, often referred to as ‘whales,’ have started aligning their moves with those of exchange traders for the first time in three years. This development ends a lengthy period in which capital was primarily leaving the market, and marks a notable change in investor behavior.
Despite these positive signals, CryptoQuant researchers emphasize the need for caution. They note that the market in late 2026 is far more sensitive to inflows into U.S. spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and Federal Reserve monetary policy than during earlier cycles.
| Cycle | Key Driver | Price Level | Main Risk Factor |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | Organic capital inflows | Broke above 365-day MA | Network growth rate |
| 2023 | Long-term accumulation | Near $80,500 | Market liquidity |
| 2026 | ETF inflows, Fed policy | $85,897+ | Macroeconomic shifts |
Analysts highlight that defending the $80,500 mark—as both a price floor and new support—is now critical for sustaining upward momentum.
Challenges and next targets
If Bitcoin retains this level against local corrections, the next hurdle for buyers will be the $88,000 to $90,000 range. On-chain models suggest that overcoming this resistance could pave the way toward entirely new all-time highs.
If buyers can hold $80,500 as support, the stage is set for attempts to break through $90,000. Past data shows that success in this zone often leads to the formation of fresh record highs, as resistance levels thin out above these thresholds.
While market sentiment remains optimistic, observers caution that both regulatory and macroeconomic developments could significantly impact the pace and sustainability of this trend.
