Bitcoin continued to trade near the $86,000 level on Tuesday following a rally that pushed the cryptocurrency to $87,350, its highest price in nearly eight months.
Monthly gains extend, oil prices ease
After reaching $87,350 during Monday’s session, bitcoin pulled back slightly but maintained strong support around $86,000. This recent surge has delivered gains of about 10.9% for BTC in September. In July and August, the coin recorded increases of 4.8% and 25.2%, respectively.
If bitcoin ends September higher, it will mark the first instance since 2012 of the cryptocurrency posting three consecutive monthly gains for July, August, and September. In 2012, this pattern preceded a notable October downturn, though analysts note that one historical case does not provide sufficient evidence for a clear trend.
Traders are also keeping an eye on global energy markets. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil briefly dipped to $89.16 per barrel, its lowest point since early September, after Saudi Arabia reopened its East-West Pipeline. Prices later rebounded to about $92, temporarily easing inflation concerns.
Onchain indicators show strengthening fundamentals
The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio for bitcoin has moved above its 365-day average, suggesting an improvement in market sentiment. Data shows the MVRV ratio is now at approximately 1.62, up from 1.19 on August 16. In the past, similar breakouts above the annual moving average occurred ahead of significant market rallies in 2019 and 2023.
The MVRV ratio compares bitcoin’s market capitalization to the average price at which coins last moved onchain. Higher readings typically mean investors are sitting on significant unrealized gains, though the current figure remains well below the 3.7 level reached at previous cycle peaks.
An alternative method looking at the 30-day moving average for MVRV shows the index approaching the 1.5 mark, which would represent the first breakout since January if surpassed.
Mini dictionary: MVRV ratio, a metric measuring the ratio of bitcoin’s market value to its realized value (the average price at which each coin was last moved), is used by analysts as a gauge of market tops and bottoms.
Analysts focus on key resistance and support zones
Technical analyst Ted Pillows highlighted in a recent post on X that the $87,000-$88,000 range has emerged as a significant resistance area for bitcoin. He attributes this importance to its proximity to the yearly opening price and warns that if bitcoin cannot break above this level, traders may look to $79,000-$80,000 for support in case of a correction.
$87,000-$88,000 stands out as a crucial zone for bitcoin, closely aligned with this year’s opening price and likely to provide resistance. If the price is rejected at this level, support could form around $79,000-$80,000.
| Level | Role |
|---|---|
| $87,000-$88,000 | Resistance |
| $79,000-$80,000 | Support |
As traders closely monitor these levels, interest in bitcoin’s current three-month win streak remains strong. Historical comparisons point to 2012 as the last time BTC saw three consecutive monthly gains between July and September; that run was followed by a brief decline but ultimately gave way to significant gains over time.
Market outlook and geopolitical backdrop
In a recent speech to the United Nations, US President Donald Trump stated that he expects a possible resolution to the ongoing US-Iran tensions after the upcoming midterm elections in November.
Bitcoin currently trades close to $86,000, with traders watching the $87,000-$88,000 region for signs of a breakout or reversal as sentiment remains cautiously optimistic.
