Crypto analyst ChartNerd has issued a new technical forecast for XRP, outlining two bearish scenarios that could play out in the fourth quarter. With XRP recently trading near $1.56 and hovering directly at its 50-week exponential moving average (EMA), ChartNerd considers this point significant for determining the asset’s next move.
The two main scenarios
According to ChartNerd’s analysis, the first scenario projects a rejection between $1.50 and $1.60, which aligns closely with the 50-week EMA. In this outcome, XRP would fail to reclaim this moving average, leading to a loss of momentum and a likely retracement as Q4 progresses.
The second scenario envisions a short-term rally that pushes XRP into the $1.80 to $2 range. In this case, the price would retest what served as a key support floor during 2025. However, this former support would now act as resistance, prompting a deeper pullback as the fourth quarter unfolds.
Despite their differences, both scenarios conclude with XRP entering a period of price decline. The divergence lies in how far the token might climb before the anticipated drop begins.
ChartNerd expects one of two outcomes for XRP: either a rejection at the 50-week EMA between $1.50 and $1.60 with a subsequent retrace in Q4, or a move into the $1.80 to $2 range to retest the 2025 support floor, followed by a deeper pullback in Q4. In both cases, lower prices are projected in the coming weeks.
Technical picture and price history
The current chart spans price movements from the start of 2025 through a prospective decline into late 2026. XRP reached a peak of $3.65 in July 2025 before falling sharply to a near-term low around $1 in August. Technical levels highlight two critical zones: a lower band close to $1.55, reflecting the potential rejection area, and an upper band near $2, which represents the likely resistance if a rally occurs.
The chart also displays a white moving average line that slopes downward, reinforcing the bearish structure. Both predicted scenarios show a convergent downward path as the fourth quarter advances.
Analyst’s previous calls and market context
ChartNerd’s recent projections have drawn attention due to his accurate bearish outlooks in past cycles. Earlier in 2025, when many analysts favored bullish targets for XRP, ChartNerd publicly predicted a decline beneath $1. That forecast materialized in August, bolstering his credibility among active traders and reinforcing his reputation for identifying contrarian movements.
Some market participants remain optimistic on XRP’s long-term trajectory. In response to a bullish challenge from a commenter, ChartNerd acknowledged the case for sustained growth and pointed to his own projections calling for double-digit prices and a $27 target for 2030. Nevertheless, he continues to warn that short-term volatility and downward price swings are likely before any long-term upside can resume.
Tools for tracking real-time moves
Because critical resistance and support levels such as those at $1.50 and $2 may influence swift market shifts, comprehensive monitoring tools have become valuable for traders seeking an edge. In a market where a single Fed decision or a sudden altcoin listing can change everything in seconds, jumping between different apps for charts, news, and portfolio tracking is costing investors money. Smart traders are now utilizing privacy-first tools like CryptoAppsy to consolidate everything. Without even the hassle of creating an account, you get real-time charts, smart price alerts, coin-specific news, and critical macro data all on one screen.
XRP’s projected direction depends on whether the current levels hold or whether the token rallies into resistance before retracing. Both paths suggest increased short-term caution for traders, while longer-term optimism persists for some analysts.
The next several weeks will reveal which scenario ultimately plays out. A push above $1.60 toward $2 may offer brief upside, but both paths indicate potential weakness for XRP into Q4. As always, analysts urge investors to monitor technical signals and upcoming events closely before making significant portfolio changes.
