Bitcoin surged on Friday, approaching the critical $86,000 mark as traders closely monitored resistance levels that have limited its recent upside moves. The leading cryptocurrency traded near $85,969 after reaching an intraday high of $86,794, buoyed by a favorable shift in US Treasury yields and a wave of forced short position closures totaling over $200 million within 24 hours.
Key resistance zones draw focus
Analysts identified that Bitcoin was testing a supply area between $86,200 and $88,000 following its recovery above $85,000. According to Nicolai Sondergaard, senior research analyst at Nansen, the next pivotal level stands at $87,000, while the psychologically important $90,000 becomes increasingly relevant if this barrier is breached.
Bitfinex analysts offered a more specific technical view, flagging the $87,722 yearly open as the next major upside threshold. Their framework suggests that a durable break above this level, especially if supported by renewed inflows to spot Bitcoin ETFs, could pave the way toward a mean-MVRV reading near $96,700.
Despite these nearby resistance levels, none is seen as a guarantee of further gains, but they highlight the significance of price movement in the coming sessions.
Sondergaard has emphasized that, “The important distinction is that price has turned bullish faster than positioning has.” He noted that some of the largest BTC traders on Hyperliquid remained net short, even after Bitcoin’s previous recovery above $85,000.
Shorts caught offside as leverage resets
As Bitcoin advanced towards $86,000, data showed over $200 million in short positions liquidated within 24 hours, hinting at the possibility of a feedback loop that could further fuel price gains. Traders who have remained cautious or under-exposed may be compelled to chase the rally, potentially adding momentum if resistance gives way.
Bitfinex analysts suggest that much of the leverage accumulated during September’s spike has been flushed out, with perpetual positioning now close to neutral. This reset means Bitcoin’s market is less reliant on overly bullish leveraged bets, while remaining short positions could still act as fuel in the event of a breakout.
They describe the current environment as having an “asymmetric bid,” reflecting Bitcoin’s resilience despite high real yields and tighter financial conditions.
ETF flows hold the key to sustainability
In recent weeks, US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $3.1 billion over nine consecutive sessions—a pace among their strongest this year. However, this streak ended Wednesday with $148.7 million in net outflows, mostly from Fidelity, while BlackRock also reported withdrawals.
The continuation of Bitcoin’s rally now depends on whether spot demand from ETFs returns, as derivatives-driven price bursts can lack staying power.
Bitfinex analysts argue that spot demand, rather than broader macroeconomic trends, will ultimately determine Bitcoin’s direction out of the current range. A sustained break above $87,722 supported by accelerating inflows could tilt the balance in favor of further upside, while waning ETF appetite leaves the market vulnerable to reversal.
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