XRP is nearing a critical technical level as traders watch whether the token can close above $1.53 on the four-hour chart. As of October 4, XRP traded around $1.50 after gaining approximately 1% in the previous 24 hours.
Key resistance levels and technical setup
Recent data from CoinGecko showed that XRP moved between $1.49 and $1.51 intraday, without breaking above established resistance levels from September. Market participants remain focused on the $1.53 threshold, widely viewed as the immediate trigger for a confirmed breakout.
Technical analyst Ali Martinez identified a contracting triangle pattern as XRP’s price continues to consolidate. The token is moving between descending resistance and rising support as the pattern narrows toward its apex. Martinez stated that confirmation of a move requires a four-hour close above $1.53. If this condition is met, he placed the first target at $1.62—representing an 8% increase from the current $1.50 area.
XRP traded above $1.53 during the week, briefly reaching $1.55 on October 2, but failed to establish a sustained breakout as prices quickly fell back below the threshold.
Analysts have emphasized that intraday moves through $1.53 alone will not confirm the pattern. Buyers will need to maintain momentum and keep the price above this technical level for the entire four-hour period. Market observers caution that triangle patterns can resolve in either direction, and the narrowing range itself does not guarantee an upward move.
During this period, Martinez also reported that major holders, or “whales,” have not significantly altered their XRP positions, suggesting that large investors remain on the sidelines as the pattern approaches resolution.
Elliott Wave and Fibonacci targets
Analysis from More Crypto Online places the current breakout attempt within a broader Elliott Wave structure starting at the August low of $0.985. The Elliott Wave model, developed by Ralph Nelson Elliott, analyzes price patterns in markets as a sequence of waves that reflect changing investor psychology.
Mini dictionary: Elliott Wave theory is a technical analysis approach that examines recurring wave-like movements in prices to forecast future trends, commonly used to identify market cycles and key support or resistance levels.
According to this analysis, the recovery from $0.985 may be impulsive—though a complete five-wave advance is required to confirm the bullish scenario. In this context, XRP would need to hold above key supports while clearing new resistance on its way toward higher levels.
The chart cited by More Crypto Online identifies $1.67 as the next resistance level, followed by $1.93 and $2.25 if the sequence develops. The broader Fibonacci extension for the advance places an extended target zone between $2.14 and $2.99, but each stage demands confirmation at incremental price milestones.
| Technical Level | Role | Analyst/Source |
|---|---|---|
| $1.53 | Breakout trigger (four-hour close) | Ali Martinez |
| $1.62 | First target after breakout | Ali Martinez |
| $1.67, $1.93, $2.25 | Next resistance levels | More Crypto Online |
| $2.14–$2.99 | Final target zone | More Crypto Online (Fibonacci) |
Support levels remain between $1.10 and $1.38, with $0.985 standing as the key invalidation point for the bullish structure. The breakout scenario rests on XRP first achieving a four-hour close above $1.53 and then advancing toward the higher targets outlined by analysts.
For the near term, the technical setup keeps focus on $1.53 as the decisive indicator. Only after this threshold is cleared can XRP’s path toward $1.62 and beyond come into technical view.
