XRP drops 16% from September high, analysts warn of key $1.37 support

XRP slipped to $1.40 on Monday, marking a 16% retreat from its late-September peak. The latest recovery from an October 8 low of $1.32 has failed to restore the bullish momentum seen earlier in the season, leaving the chart under mounting pressure.

XRP faces key resistance after failed breakout

In September, XRP surged as high as $1.66, reaching the resistance zone between $1.60 and $1.70 that some analysts identified as the neckline of a bullish formation. A clear move above this range was expected by traders to open the door for a rally toward $1.80 or $2.00.

Instead, sellers halted the advance, driving XRP back below $1.50 and then $1.45, eventually pushing the price under $1.40 last week. By October 8, XRP dropped to $1.32, giving back most of its gains since August.

Investing.com analyst Itai Smidt said XRP failed to clear the neckline of its bullish setup and then lost the critical level needed to sustain the upward trend. He explained that failed breakouts, followed by support levels turning into resistance, alter the technical landscape and require further confirmation before traders will trust a renewed rally.

XRP’s failed breakout at the neckline has left the technical picture more fragile, and further progress will hinge on reclaiming previous support levels and establishing new highs.

Recovery shows weakness amid bearish indicators

XRP’s bounce from the $1.32 low offered some optimism, but analysts remain cautious about the strength of the move. John Isige of FXStreet noted the path of least resistance remains to the downside unless buyers can deliver a solid daily close above the $1.40 threshold.

He also highlighted that relative strength index (RSI) readings remain bearish, and the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicator continues to signal selling pressure.

Analysts argued that trading above $1.40 during the day is not enough to reverse the broader trend. XRP needs to maintain that level and surpass the $1.43–$1.48 range before breaking the pattern of lower highs established since September.

Until these conditions are met, rebounds could be viewed as short-term relief rallies within a weakening market, rather than signals of an end to the correction.

Market participants hold steady as new catalyst emerges

Despite recent weakness, some analysts note that long-term investors have not capitulated. Ananda Banerjee of BeInCrypto reported that exchange outflows held steady throughout the decline, while exchange-traded fund (ETF) investors continued to increase their exposure, even as prices fell.

Glassnode data, cited by Banerjee, showed XRP’s 30-day net outflow from exchanges at a negative 1.58 billion tokens as of October 8. US spot XRP ETFs also attracted fresh capital, with Franklin’s XRPZ reporting inflows of $8.17 million on October 8 during XRP’s drop to $1.32.

Banerjee flagged $1.37 as a decisive level, suggesting that a daily close below this mark, followed by a breach of $1.30, could prompt patient holders to begin selling and set the stage for a further fall toward $1.20.

ETF inflows and steady outflows from exchanges reveal some resilience; however, a breakdown below key support levels could trigger broader selling.

A new development arrived as Evernorth, an investment company, completed its SPAC merger on October 9 and is set to commence trading on Nasdaq under the ticker XRPN. The company holds 473 million XRP, offering investors another route to public-market XRP exposure.

However, the listing does not guarantee an immediate increase in token demand and is seen as an additional path rather than a direct boost to XRP’s price action.

Mini dictionary: SPAC (Special Purpose Acquisition Company) is a publicly listed firm that raises capital through an initial public offering (IPO) with the aim of merging with or acquiring an existing private company, thereby enabling the target to be publicly traded without a traditional IPO process.