Cryptocurrency researcher SMQKE has put forward a case for a higher XRP price, highlighting adoption growth and declining supply as central elements influencing future valuation. The argument was detailed in a recent post on X, where SMQKE referred to a video analysis and supporting documents laying out the factors behind the outlook for XRP.
The cross-border payments market and XRP’s potential
The video begins by examining the overall size of the global cross-border payments market. SMQKE cites research by digital asset firm Delphi Digital, which referenced McKinsey’s estimate of $155 trillion in cross-border transactions globally for 2018, with a projection that the total market size could reach $230 trillion by 2028.
From there, SMQKE draws a connection between this market and XRP’s potential role in international payments. Ripple Labs, the fintech company responsible for developing RippleNet and the XRP Ledger, had previously stated in a corporate paper that increased demand for XRP could follow from widespread adoption of its settlement protocol. Such adoption, according to Ripple, could result in appreciation of XRP’s price.
The future price of XRP will depend on adoption, utility, and scarcity. These three factors serve as the foundation for the projected path to a higher XRP valuation.
The Role of XRP in payment settlement
The video elaborates on the current structure of global payments, emphasizing that SWIFT acts as a messaging network between banks, while RippleNet can serve as an independent settlement layer. SMQKE asserts that XRP can function as a bridge asset between different currencies, facilitating instant settlement during cross-border transactions.
Banks do not necessarily require a formal partnership between SWIFT and Ripple to utilize RippleNet infrastructure. SMQKE points out that established core banking systems such as Temenos, SAP, and CGI are capable of integrating with RippleNet via APIs to process standard payment messages, including the MT-103 format.
Gibraltar Asset Management, an investment firm providing insights on digital assets, has been cited by SMQKE for its report on Ripple Payments. According to the firm, Ripple Payments connects with over 300 banks, payment providers, and financial institutions globally, including Santander, Standard Chartered, and Bank of America.
The video also considers the transaction fee model built into the XRP Ledger. SMQKE explains that every transaction involves a small XRP fee, which is permanently destroyed, reducing the total supply as transaction activity grows.
Mini dictionary: MT-103 – A standardized SWIFT payment message format used internationally for single credit transfers. It is primarily used by banks for cross-border payments.
Fixed supply, token destruction, and network effects
SMQKE highlights the significance of XRP’s maximum supply, which is fixed at 100 billion tokens. The XRP Ledger protocol prevents the creation of additional XRP, making every token destroyed by transaction fees permanently unrecoverable and reducing the circulating supply over time.
Citing an academic analysis of Ripple and SWIFT, SMQKE notes that this token destruction mechanism, combined with expanding demand for the XRP network, could gradually shrink supply. Greater usage translates into more frequent fee burning, potentially exerting upward pressure on price.
Gibraltar Asset Management’s research adds that increased use of XRP in payments creates a growing transactional demand. SMQKE references comments by Zagari, who argued that a rising network effect—where more participants drive even more adoption—could further support XRP’s market price.
Regulatory clarity and the US market
Addressing past regulatory headwinds, SMQKE discusses the period of uncertainty in the United States that affected XRP’s price and exchange support. According to Gibraltar Asset Management’s assessment, Ripple’s resolution with the US Securities and Exchange Commission in 2025 removed a significant barrier that previously deterred some market activity.
The overall argument concludes by reiterating that while adoption and transactional usage may increase demand, the permanent removal of XRP through transaction fees gradually tightens supply. Together, these dynamics could influence the token’s price trajectory should adoption and network activity continue to expand.
