Crypto analyst Xaif, known online as Xaif_Crypto, published an analysis signaling a major shift in the market structure for XRP. His recent investigation revealed a sharp decline in XRP’s cumulative volume delta (CVD), which tracks the net difference between buying and selling volume over time.
Steep CVD decline for XRP
According to Xaif, XRP’s CVD dropped from nearly neutral to around -1.18 billion. He pointed out that both the green and purple moving averages on his TradingView chart are sloping downward, showing no signs of leveling off. As of the latest reading, the CVD stands at the lowest point on the chart, with the price of XRP at 1.2983.
The CVD’s downward trajectory suggests that selling activity has consistently outpaced buying, indicating pressure from sellers dominating over multiple sessions rather than short-lived surges.
Mini dictionary: Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD): An indicator that measures the net buying and selling volume, helping traders gauge whether buyers or sellers are more active over a specific period.
Xaif’s chart shows a period of stability in CVD until early October, followed by a sudden drop around October 12 to 13. A brief stabilization was seen before another wave brought the CVD even lower from October 17 to 19.
XRP liquidity just got absolutely crushed. The CVD has collapsed from near neutral levels to roughly -1.18 billion, while both moving averages continue trending lower. Is this capitulation, or is there more selling left?
Capitulation or sustained selling?
Xaif’s central question focuses on whether the current CVD collapse represents market capitulation or if further selling might be likely. Capitulation typically refers to a situation where persistent and heavy selling marks the end of a downtrend and sometimes signals a reversal. Despite the weakness, the CVD pattern does not yet confirm that a full capitulation event has taken place.
Some analysts interpreting the data remain cautious, viewing the ongoing selling as a sign the bearish trend could extend further. Others believe the current intensity bears hallmarks of exhaustion among sellers, often preceding a shift in momentum.
Community discussions and analysis
Several market watchers responded to Xaif’s analysis, providing further technical context. One observer described capitulation in precise terms—it usually involves a spike in trading volume, long wicks on the chart, funding rates reaching -0.1%, and CVD flatlining while the price still declines.
By these criteria, he assessed the market as not yet meeting the typical conditions for capitulation. He characterized the current situation as “distribution,” a phase dominated by active selling without divergence or signs of reversal, but suggested a potential bottom could form within a few days.
A different analyst commented that his experience with similar CVD patterns gives him the impression of capitulation. Another voice took a more moderate position, agreeing that the -1.18 billion CVD figure signals significant stress in the market but emphasized that moving averages remain weak and unrecovered, echoing Xaif’s observations.
Market sentiment split
The data from the past week suggests that XRP continues to face strong selling pressure, with neither price nor CVD reflecting a clear sign of divergence or an imminent turnaround. The analyst community remains divided, with some expecting the period of active distribution to persist, while others think seller exhaustion could emerge soon.
