Market analyst Ali Charts has spotlighted a trend of significant Bitcoin price declines during each of the last four US midterm election cycles. With the next election scheduled for November 3, Bitcoin’s response to this political event is drawing increased scrutiny from investors.
Historical midterm election declines for Bitcoin
Ali Charts, a widely followed cryptocurrency market analyst known for tracking Bitcoin’s price trends, shared data on X highlighting how Bitcoin has frequently posted sharp drawdowns around US midterm elections. The figures reveal a series of declines: Bitcoin dropped 72% in 2010, 65% in 2014, 52% in 2018, and 27% in 2022 during midterm years.
The consistency of these downturns across multiple cycles has fueled debate among traders and investors about potential causation. Nonetheless, Ali Charts cautioned that several other factors, such as prevailing market cycles, liquidity conditions, and the broader sentiment among investors, also played a role in these declines.
In each of the last four US midterm election cycles, Bitcoin prices fell between 27% and 72%, with only 2010 showing a significant rebound in the fourth quarter before subsequent years turned negative.
Examining fourth-quarter performance, Bitcoin gained 391% in 2010 but recorded losses in the three following midterm years, falling 16.70% in 2014, 42.16% in 2018, and 14.75% in 2022. This further reinforces concerns that election cycles may coincide with periods of volatility and declining prices for the cryptocurrency.
| Year | Midterm decline | Q4 return |
|---|---|---|
| 2010 | -72% | +391% |
| 2014 | -65% | -16.70% |
| 2018 | -52% | -42.16% |
| 2022 | -27% | -14.75% |
Ali Charts suggested that, although elections coincide with these drops, market structure and liquidity constraints remain critical drivers. The analyst emphasized the importance of monitoring risk in the approach to November’s midterm vote.
Traders focus on $73,000 support ahead of election
Ali Charts identified $73,000 as a key support level for Bitcoin if renewed selling emerges following the election result. This price aligns closely with the short-term holder cost basis, a metric that tracks the average purchase price for coins recently acquired by investors.
Mini dictionary: Short-term holder cost basis refers to the average price that recent Bitcoin buyers paid for their holdings, often used by traders to assess support and resistance levels in the market.
Ali Charts argued that this area often acts as a psychological and technical support during bull cycles, with buyers historically defending positions near this level after sharp corrections. A decisive drop toward $73,000 could indicate mounting pressure on buyers, while a rebound from this zone may reinforce optimism about the broader trend.
The $73,000 level, which matches the short-term holder cost basis, stands out as a support to monitor should Bitcoin experience post-election volatility. The response here will reveal whether demand remains firm enough to sustain the uptrend.
Looking ahead, the analyst plans to monitor how Bitcoin reacts around this area if prices weaken after the upcoming vote. Risk management remains a key concern as investors prepare for what could be another turbulent election quarter.
