Bitcoin has experienced a notable decrease in its active user base, with 30,000 funded wallets closing since October 16. Data from Santiment indicates that the total number of non-empty Bitcoin addresses dropped to 59.95 million by October 26, reinforcing concerns about declining retail participation. This decline in wallets coincides with increased warnings that Bitcoin could face additional downward pressure.
Retail wallets drop as price hovers near resistance
Santiment’s analysis highlights that retail participants may be stepping away from the market after extended stagnation. These wallet figures, which represent funded on-chain addresses, are not a precise measure of unique investors, since individuals often control multiple addresses. Still, the declining numbers mark a shift in market sentiment and may affect speculative interest going forward.
Despite this decline in wallet numbers, Bitcoin’s price approached $80,000 on Monday, after briefly touching $79,332. However, this proximity to technical resistance levels has created divided outlooks among analysts. Some point to the possibility of seller exhaustion and the formation of a potential bottom, while others caution that a weakening technical structure could drive prices lower.
Santiment’s research in early October showed an opposite trend, with addresses holding less than 0.01 BTC increasing even in weak market conditions. That shift suggested that continued retail buying may have delayed a recovery. By late October, the drop in wallet activity raised new questions about the market’s direction.
Bitcoin still needs strong demand and increased buying to confirm any market bottom. According to price analysis, stabilization and a move above $82,500 would support a bottoming interpretation. If Bitcoin falls below $79,000, further losses may become likely.
Technical breakdown and ETF outflows deepen market uncertainty
Technical factors have added to market pressure. Analyst Ali Martinez noted on October 26 that Bitcoin broke below a rising parallel channel on the four-hour chart, ending its previous pattern of consistent higher lows and raising the risk of a short-term correction.
Martinez identified $82,000 as the next major resistance, with a potential buying opportunity at $72,500, about 9% below recent trading levels. Institutional flows have also weighed on sentiment. Glassnode data put the average entry price for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF holders at around $81,500, with corporate treasuries purchasing at roughly $80,200.
The True Market Mean calculated by Glassnode stands near $77,600, providing an important price level for traders to watch. However, a recent reversal in ETF flows could challenge any early recovery. Farside Investors reported $635.6 million in outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs on October 22, followed by another $137.9 million on October 23.
Beyond the technical breakdown and ETF outflows, the meme token segment has presented a contrasting dynamic. As traders look to time the market and identify favored assets, the meme token space has witnessed cases like the “Niu Lai” trade on Fomo App, where a $99 investment turned into approximately $370,000 within days. In this highly speculative sector, monitoring both price and investor behavior has become crucial. Fomo App offers a unified platform for token discovery, trading, and real-time investor insights, featuring social feeds, leaderboards, and trade alerts to help track meme token activity in detail.
Data from institutional trading and technical signals suggests that Bitcoin remains at a critical inflection point. Until a confirmed breakout above resistance or a sustained move below support occurs, the market is expected to remain volatile.
Macro catalysts and outlook
Attention now turns to macroeconomic developments, especially the Federal Reserve’s policy decision scheduled for October 28. Liquidity shifts from central bank policy can quickly alter risk appetites in crypto, making upcoming macro events a potential trigger for further price movements.
Until then, the market is focused on reclaiming resistance at $82,000 to $82,500 or watching for declines toward lower support levels identified by analysts. The recent drop in wallet activity, combined with institutional outflows, underscores the need for increased buying interest to stabilize the market.
