Bitcoin ended its streak of seven consecutive weeks trading above the 50-week moving average with a weekly close at $74,968. The technical indicator, now positioned at $75,488, has acted as a crucial support in past market cycles, according to a recent report by Galaxy Research.
Historical cycles and the 50-week MA
Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Research—a firm specializing in digital asset analysis—characterized the latest dip below the moving average as a classic Bitcoin move. Thorn explained that slipping below this line just after a bear-market bottom has been standard behavior during previous four-year cycles.
Bitcoin has only twice dropped beneath this trendline after reclaiming it from bear-market lows. In the 2011–2012 cycle, the cryptocurrency bottomed at $2.20, hovered above the moving average for seven weeks, then broke down and spent 20 weeks trading below it. At its lowest, Bitcoin slipped 35% under the moving average to $4.39, but this price was still 99% above the cycle’s absolute bottom. One year later, the market surged to new all-time highs.
A similar pattern appeared in the 2019–2020 cycle. After reaching a bottom at $3,195, Bitcoin fell under the moving average on five occasions, totaling 13 weeks. The March 2020 global market turbulence pulled the price 38% below the moving average, hitting a local trough of $5,359, which remained 68% higher than the cycle low. Within nine months, Bitcoin surpassed previous highs and began a new rally.
The present cycle exhibits a comparable trajectory. From its peak of $123,524 in October 2025, Bitcoin retraced 51.8% to reach a low of $59,517 in June. A subsequent rally pushed the price above the 50-week moving average to $81,195. Although Bitcoin is currently trading 7.7% below that September level, it still stands 26% above the cycle’s June low.
| Cycle | Weeks Above 50w MA | Max Drawdown Below 50w MA | Weeks Below 50w MA | Recovery to ATH |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011-12 | 7 | 35% | 20 | ~1 year |
| 2019-20 | n/a | 38% | 13 | <9 months |
| 2025-26 | 7 | n/a (now 7.7% below reclaim) | n/a | n/a |
Analyst perspective and key levels
While history suggests a familiar cycle repeat, Thorn emphasized caution. He noted that only two comparable cycles exist, making outcomes far from certain. Historic breakdowns occurred anywhere from 8% to 18% above the moving average, highlighting the potential margin for error.
Bitcoin just closed below its 50 week moving average after holding above it for 7 consecutive weeks. Two other times—2011–12 and 2019–20—Bitcoin closed below its 50w after reclaiming it post-bear bottom. Neither of those times did the bear make a new lower low on weekly close data.
According to Galaxy Research, the critical level that could invalidate the current bull case sits at $59,517. On-chain data, positions of large holders, and overall market sentiment indicate a period of consolidation, providing technical setup for strategic accumulation if Bitcoin can recover and sustain the 50-week moving average in the next month.
Mini dictionary: 50-week moving average (MA), a commonly used technical analysis indicator, calculates the average closing price of an asset over the past 50 weeks, smoothing out volatility to show longer-term trends in the market.
If Bitcoin manages to regain and maintain this level soon, many analysts suggest that the current four-year cycle could remain intact without setting new lows, keeping the path open for future upward momentum.
