Crypto analyst EGRAG CRYPTO has attracted attention with his analysis of XRP’s monthly chart, highlighting a recurring pattern that has previously led to bullish momentum.
A pattern seen before
EGRAG CRYPTO reviewed XRP’s Stochastic Relative Strength Index (S-RSI) on the monthly timeframe, noting that the indicator is currently approaching the 20-level. This level, often viewed as oversold, has in the past signaled major price expansions for the cryptocurrency.
The analyst identified three notable instances: the first in 2020 when S-RSI recovered from oversold territory and XRP later surged to $1.96 in 2021, and the second in 2023 preceding a rally that resulted in a 500% gain in late 2024. Now, as 2026 unfolds, the S-RSI appears to be entering the same zone for a third time. EGRAG CRYPTO describes each of these occurrences as a “Fake Out,” indicating apparent bearish momentum that reverses sharply.
In one of EGRAG CRYPTO’s recent comments, he stated, “History might be setting up to rhyme again,” citing previous recoveries from similar S-RSI conditions that marked the start of substantial uptrends.
He emphasized the historical pattern, suggesting that if the S-RSI rebounds as before, another upside movement in XRP could develop. However, he also cautioned that this setup is not a guarantee and is subject to price confirmation.
The HOME trendline and XRP price levels
A critical component of EGRAG CRYPTO’s analysis is the ascending white trendline on XRP’s monthly chart, which he refers to as “HOME.” This trendline has served as long-term support throughout several market cycles. XRP is currently trading near $1.02, while the analyst expects a potential retest of the trendline around the $0.90 to $1.00 range.
Should the price confirm support at HOME and the S-RSI signals a bullish crossover, EGRAG CRYPTO sees a reclaim of the $1.20 to $1.25 range as evidence for the next phase of bullish expansion in XRP.
Mini dictionary: Stochastic RSI (S-RSI) is a technical momentum indicator that combines the features of the Stochastic oscillator and the Relative Strength Index, providing traders with insights into potential overbought or oversold market conditions.
| Year | S-RSI Level | XRP Price Reaction |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | Near 20 (Oversold) | Surged to $1.96 in 2021 |
| 2023 | Near 20 (Oversold) | 500% rally in 2024 |
| 2026 | Near 20 (Oversold) | Pending confirmation |
Analyst’s outlook and key risks
EGRAG CRYPTO was clear in outlining his conviction regarding the current setup but acknowledged it is not a guarantee. He explained that a monthly breakdown below the HOME trendline would invalidate the bullish argument and signal increased downside risk. The trendline remains the structural support for his analysis.
He expressed, “A decisive monthly breakdown below HOME would challenge this thesis,” underlining the importance of the trendline as the anchor for a bullish scenario.
He also noted that oversold S-RSI conditions alone do not confirm a bottom. The broader price trend must also support a move higher before a reversal can be validated.
Looking for confirmation
EGRAG CRYPTO suggests that the three-step scenario watches for a retest of the HOME trendline, confirmation of a bullish S-RSI crossover, and a sustained reclaim of the $1.20 to $1.25 zone. Only the combination of these conditions would reinforce the outlook for another bullish phase in XRP during 2026.
As discussions in the crypto community continue, market participants are monitoring whether price action will, once again, follow the familiar pattern suggested by the S-RSI and key support levels.
