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World-famous billionaire Chamath Palihapitiya warns of a looming economic crisis that could greatly impact cryptocurrency investors in January 2024.
Chamath Palihapitiya Warns of Economic Challenges
Renowned billionaire Chamath Palihapitiya has spoken out on a matter of great interest to cryptocurrency investors. The financier has previously issued accurate warnings regarding macroeconomic events, raising the question: why is he warning people this time? What awaits cryptocurrency investors in January 2024?
Palihapitiya cautions that America’s largest companies are headed for a significant “debt wall” that will have to be repaid by January 2024. In a recent episode of the All-In Podcast, the venture capitalist discussed the rapidly rising interest rates of the past year, creating immense pressure on companies that accrued substantial debt during the pandemic when interest rates were near 0%. According to Palihapitiya, a group of highly leveraged firms in the real estate and private equity sectors may require rescue, as their tremendous debts could land them in precarious situations.
“There’s an impending credit crisis in the United States… Corporate America is about to hit a significant debt wall… Many of these companies will have to thread the needle because if interest rates don’t significantly drop in the next 18 to 24 months, these people will be paying interest at rates they can’t handle.
And they will likely continue to breach some debt contracts. One important factor here is that the lending institutions have signed some very strict rules and contracts, and one of these is what percentage and/or multiple of my EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization) I can have as debt. So, this is a way for bondholders to manage the risk of you not overborrowing.
Now the problem is, if you have a slowdown in your earnings and/or if interest rates rise, one of these two things can go wrong, and suddenly your EBITDA can increase to seven or eight times, and you can fall into a very, very bad situation. I believe there is a portfolio of over-leveraged companies in the real estate sector and a portfolio of over-leveraged companies in the private equity sector. These companies will need to be restructured, and this will likely cost trillions in capital value loss.”
Implications for Cryptocurrencies
If Palihapitiya is not voicing all this due to excessive skepticism, it suggests that the Federal Reserve has a serious problem to solve. The Fed must prevent a domino-like toppling of massive American companies while battling inflation. If it fails, the economy could face serious problems such as recession, unemployment, and unexpected severe contraction.
As January approaches, the Fed will have to take the risks of extreme tightening more seriously. So, what’s the connection with crypto? High interest rates reduce the amount of free-flowing money in the market, which can suppress crypto growth. If the Fed sees companies struggling due to high interest rates, it may have to quickly lower these rates. Moreover, if it sees this risk today, we might witness no increase in July. All these factors can lead to more “cheap money” and a potential uptick in crypto value.
