When you examine the Bitcoin charts according to the years, you can see that certain movements repeat themselves. However, historical data does not always provide accurate information. If past experiences were to give us definite truths, then in November of last year, the price of BTC would not have dropped below the previous all-time high (ATH) level of $20,000. Abnormal conditions yield unusual results.
Bitcoin Historical Data
Bitcoin (BTC) price jumped last week, ending the consolidation movement that has been going on for about a month. However, BTC has not yet managed to break out of a significant downward resistance line. We cannot say that the downtrend has clearly reversed because it has not achieved this.
The ongoing BTC decline since the all-time high in November 2021 shares an interesting similarity with what happened after the highest level of 2017. In both periods, the king cryptocurrency reached its bottom point 12 months later. Additionally, a temporary decrease below 50 was indicated by the RSI before the final increase above 50.
2017 and 2023 Bitcoin Graph
In the previous bull season, BTC initiated a rally that lasted for 180 days and brought about a 340% increase. Then, it underwent a correction of 70% within a period of 270 days before starting the next cycle. During that period, the price did not close below the $6,500 horizontal support. In the current cycle, the price of Bitcoin entered a much more gradual upward trend and reached the highest level of 2023 in July, with a 100% increase within a 240-day period.
If the movement in 2017 is repeated, the price should remain in a downtrend until the end of the year. The upcoming news flow, including FTX’s upcoming $500 million BTC sale, SilkRoad, and MtGox liquidations, seems to support this scenario.
If the BTC price deviates from the line, it could reach the next resistance at $29,200. This declining resistance line continues to be challenging for the bulls. The resistance area is more than 10% above the current price. On the other hand, the inability to sustain the increase could pave the way for a new decline towards $24,300. Whether this line will be broken or not seems to determine the trajectory of the price.
