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Popular cryptocurrency analyst Ali Martinez warned that Bitcoin 
$103,858 faces a sudden crash risk if it loses critical support levels. In a statement to his 104,000 followers, he cautioned that Bitcoin could drop approximately 27% from its current value.
Bitcoin Support Levels and the UTXO Model
Martinez explained that he uses the Unspent Transaction Output (UTXO) Realized Price Distribution (URPD) model to analyze Bitcoin’s price movements. This model indicates the number of coins that last transacted within a specific price range.
According to the UTXO model, if Bitcoin’s price falls below $93,806, there is a risk of decline to as low as $70,085.
Preparing for a Bear Scenario
The analyst noted that some traders are preparing for a potential bear market. He specifically mentioned that a significant amount of Bitcoin has been sent to exchanges recently. Last week, 33,000 Bitcoins, valued at approximately $3.23 billion, were transferred to exchanges. Additionally, Bitcoin profits worth $7.17 billion were realized on December 23.
Martinez also highlighted a 13% decrease in the number of traders betting on Bitcoin’s rise on Binance. The ratio of open long positions for Bitcoin on Binance has recently dropped from 66.73% to 53.60%. This decline indicates a strengthening bearish sentiment.
Martinez emphasized that if Bitcoin breaks its support levels, the decline could continue, stating that the $100,000 level must hold as support. According to the IOMAP metric, re-establishing this level as support will be crucial for market stability.
