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Bitcoin‘s price reached its all-time high of $73,881 in March 2024, delighting investors with a 68% increase in the first quarter. Since then, it has struggled to stay above $60,000, let alone reach $70,000. However, a new study suggests a 174% increase by the end of 2024. Bitcoin rose above $60,000 after showing a bullish morning star pattern on its weekly chart but recently fell below $59,000.
What Will Bitcoin’s Price Be?
Bitcoin follower and analyst Sminston With shared his analysis on X, considering the peaks of previous Bitcoin bull cycles in 2011, 2013, and 2017. The key point was to evaluate each peak’s decline according to BTC’s price movement at the highest level of each cycle.
The researcher revealed that he performed an “exponential decline fit” to uncover BTC’s highest level in 2021, considering the prices from 2011, 2013, and 2017. The goal was to see if the data aligned with the peak levels, and it appeared to be consistent.
The results were quite striking: $65,732.72 was predicted, while the actual peak price was $64,682.47, a difference of about $1,050.
When asked to comment on a potential price estimate for the 2024/2025 price cycle, the results were quite intriguing. The quarterly target for 2024-2025 is shown in the table above. The researcher still warned investors to be cautious.
Bitcoin Comments
The above study suggests that positive price movements may occur in the coming months and aligns with other mathematical models. For example, the Bitcoin power law based on the same exponential decay concept shows that Bitcoin has not yet reached a new peak.
As seen in the graph above, BTC continues to stay below the linear regression line (green) and has not yet surpassed this level in the current bull cycle.
In the previous bull runs of 2013, 2017, and 2021, BTC reached new peaks when it exceeded the linear line value (green line). As of today, Bitcoin’s regression line value is around $88,000, and it is expected to reach $100,000 by early 2025. Therefore, if history repeats itself, Bitcoin’s next price peak could move above $100,000.
