All eyes seem to be on Nvidia‘s upcoming earnings report. The cryptocurrency market, especially Bitcoin, appears to have moved in parallel with the decline in US stocks today. Nvidia’s announcement has the potential to provide clues about the continuation of the AI-driven bull market or whether the rally is starting to lose momentum, and this situation could also be seen as a turning point.
Nvidia Expectations and Cryptocurrencies
Analysts participating in the FactSet survey indicated that Nvidia might have achieved an adjusted earnings per share of approximately 65 cents for the second quarter, with revenues potentially reaching $28.74 billion. This figure represents more than double the earnings compared to the same period in 2023.
On the other hand, Nvidia’s revenue had shown a year-over-year increase of more than threefold in April, which could indicate a slowdown in growth. This situation at Nvidia has also led to uncertainty on the Nasdaq side, and all eyes are currently on the upcoming announcement.
The cryptocurrency market, which maintained a positive correlation with the Nasdaq 100 with a 30-day average correlation coefficient of 0.40 as of August 27, also experienced a noticeable decline, especially Bitcoin.
Market Long/Short Balance
The decline in the crypto market revealed liquidations worth $143.70 million in the last 24 hours, with $126.34 million linked to long positions. Meanwhile, the open interest (OI) in the crypto futures market decreased by approximately 1.80% during the same period.
The significant elimination of long positions reflects that many investors are trading with high leverage.
Given that the market is currently moving in the opposite direction of this outlook, a series of liquidations that strengthen the downward price movement can be observed. This situation generally leads to a rapid decline as stop-loss and margin call orders are triggered.
On the other hand, the decrease in OI indicates a reduction in active futures contracts, showing that investors are closing their existing positions and withdrawing from the market.
General Chart of Cryptocurrencies
The decline in cryptocurrencies led by Bitcoin today can be interpreted as a reflection of movements in the general economic world. The price movements occurred after the market tested the upper trend line of the ongoing descending channel formation and experienced a scenario similar to that of June and July.
As of August 27, the market value moved below the 200-day exponential moving average (200-day EMA; blue wave), an important indicator, and stands at around $2.13 trillion. The charts reflect the danger of a decline towards the lower trend line of the mentioned channel, around $1.80-$1.72 trillion.
