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The most widely accepted idea in the cryptocurrency market is that Bitcoin‘s price always rises after the event known as ‘Bitcoin Halving,’ which halves the block subsidy received by Bitcoin miners. However, a crypto analyst has a different theory and believes that this time it will be different.
The Analyst’s Bitcoin Price Prediction
CrediBULL Crypto, a Twitter account with thousands of followers closely followed by cryptocurrency investors, published its controversial analysis on August 10th. This analysis seems to have made investors nervous.
The next BTC halving in April/May 2024 will be marked as the TOP of our bull cycle instead of the ‘beginning’ as many expect, and therefore we will be in the depths of a BIG bear market until 2025.
This theory is supported by historical data and assumes that Bitcoin is in a bull market cycle that started in 2018, rather than the widely accepted cycle of 2020, when BTC was priced at $3,000. CrediBULL also believes that this cycle is not over and expects to see a higher peak than $69,000 in November 2021.
However, this is not a new theory proposed by this crypto analyst. CrediBULL contradicted the widely accepted market expectation of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by December 2021 in an article published on July 1st, calling for a pullback to $40,000, which is exactly what happened.
What’s Next for Bitcoin in the Cycle?
According to the analyst, considering the current cycle (2018-2024), each bull run has been followed by a pullback and then a consolidation phase. Each consolidation phase has been followed by the next “parabolic move” that lasted fewer days than the previous consolidation phase.
We can see this data in the graph provided above:
- $1,100: 104 days, the first consolidation phase (2019)
- $9,500: 81 days, the first impulse (2019)
- $8,000: 207 days, the second consolidation phase (2020)
- $52,000: 180 days, the second impulse (2021)
- $16,400: 272 days, the third consolidation phase (2023)
- New all-time high range: should last less than 272 days, the third and final (2024)
This analysis is consistent with the well-known Technical Analysis (TA) indicator called ‘Elliot Wave cycles theory.’ According to Elliot Wave’s 12345 theory, the first wave (1) starts with the first move in 2019, then a pullback (2) in 2020, a new move (3) in 2021, and the current stage as the final pullback (4) with expectations of what the final move (5) could be.
CrediBULL Crypto then predicts the start of a surprising “secular bear market” after Bitcoin’s halving in April and May 2024, which will surprise many investors who expect higher prices.
Meanwhile, BTC is trading at $29,400 at the time of writing, indicating a 1.18% decrease during the day. Considering everything, the ability of the cryptocurrency to meet the expectations of the above analyst may depend on further developments related to Bitcoin, as well as the overall sensitivity in the broader crypto and macroeconomic environment.
