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Four-year cycles play a significant role in the strategies of experienced cryptocurrency investors. While there is no guarantee that these cycles will repeat, it is hoped they will. Cryptocurrency analyst John Osterman recently highlighted the relationship between halving and price bottoms, so let’s take a look at this.
Cryptocurrency Analyst’s Comment
Bitcoin’s price is at $54,000, and the normalization of low levels is causing investors to experience more losses. There is almost a $20,000 difference between the ATH and the current price. However, cryptocurrency analyst John Osterman mentioned that the difficulties faced by investors might soon end based on historical data.
- “Is this the worst Bitcoin
$104,463 cycle so far? No, it is not. - – In 2016, 20,200 Bitcoin Blocks after the halving, Bitcoin was struggling near the red line base/support. This was a worse scenario.
- – In 2020, 20,200 Bitcoin Blocks after the halving, Bitcoin was between the green line linear-regression and the red line base/support. Just like today.
- – Today, in 2024, 20,200 Bitcoin Blocks after the halving, Bitcoin is between the green line linear regression and the red line base/support, just like in 2020.”
So, according to historical data, there is nothing abnormal about this cycle. Despite the sideways movement that has been ongoing for six months, the cryptocurrency analyst believes that the price increase will continue soon.
Has Bitcoin Hit the Bottom?
Many analysts were targeting the real bottom this month with Q4 expectations before the rise begins. Although the BTC drop is frustrating, if the real bottom is determined post-halving this year, the belief in a rebound could strengthen. An analyst known by the pseudonym Kyledoops describes the situation as “uncertainty” with current STH data, rather than a bear market or collapse.
“Short-term investors are struggling due to increased unrealized losses, but we are not in a full bear market yet.
The emerging picture reflects the fluctuations of 2019 and indicates uncertainty rather than a complete market collapse.”
An analyst known as APSK32 summarized his expectations and actions for today and tomorrow as follows:
“The Fed is lowering interest rates, the yield curve is inverting, altcoins are crushed, Bitcoin has stalled, and stocks look vulnerable.
Recession? I don’t believe anyone knows if or more importantly when it will come. The catalysts that trigger a recession are very random, and timing is everything. Because I don’t know when a recession will come, if it does, I will avoid the tendency to sell my Bitcoin in hopes of buying it back at a lower price.
If prices drop, you might consider buying MSTR call options or trading on margin. Just know that a macro event can disrupt all patterns, floors, and timings in the same way. Save a portion of your salary in Bitcoin and keep it in a cold wallet.”
