Bitcoin’s price is once again falling, with the latest attempt above $58,000 ending in failure. Analysts view the current situation from various perspectives, suggesting that the more angles we consider, the more consistent and accurate the strategies we can develop. Let’s examine the examples of Bitcoin 
$78,323 cycle charts.
Bitcoin Predictions
Known by the pseudonym BACH, a cycle analyst, evaluated on September 6 that BTC miners weakened their stock positions over the summer, but a recovery in crypto could begin as of September. When viewed over a broader time frame, September is defined as a largely horizontal period for this cycle, despite being the bottom.
After publishing this view, BTC experienced a $3,000 increase, and according to the shared model, this movement was consistent with cycle data. He later wrote, “Around September 20, we will see the formation of a level that Bitcoin’s price has long maintained as a base. Data indicates that the probability of seeing a dip below the August low is strong.”
The analyst’s scenario suggests that with a return to $58,000, the price will form higher lows.
Bitcoin Cycle Target
Another crypto analyst, Thomas Fahrer, also operates on the expectation that cycle data will repeat. According to his prediction, after reaching the previous cycle targets of $1,200 and $19,000, Bitcoin should climb to $400,000 in this cycle, following its $65,000 target.
However, there is a problem here. After the $19,000 peak, we saw a new peak 340% higher. The difference between the previous cycle peaks was much greater. Therefore, as market value quadruples, the multiplication factor decreases. Between the 2014-2018 peaks, there was growth close to 16 times, which dropped to 3.4 times in the next cycle, a quarter of the previous growth.
If growth is 25% in this cycle, the peak should be $120,000, 85% above the $65,000 peak (3.4/0.25 equals the price multiplication factor between two cycles). Logically, this makes sense, but with abnormal global adoption and demand, Bitcoin could reach $400,000. However, compared to peaks like $65,000 and $19,000, this seems much more challenging.
