Dogecoin has returned to the spotlight as technical signals reminiscent of previous market lows attract attention, despite the meme coin’s ongoing weak performance in recent months. Price action, combined with momentum data, has reignited discussion about whether a significant move could be on the horizon for Dogecoin.
Correction structure dominates technical outlook
Analyst Hailey notes that, according to Elliott Wave analysis, Dogecoin is still trading within an extended corrective pattern, rather than entering a fresh bearish trend. This perspective suggests that the current pullback marks the final leg of Wave IV in the major framework evolving since DOGE’s all-time high in 2021.
Glossary: Elliott Wave theory is a technical analysis approach that interprets market moves as recurring wave patterns. Analysts use this method to categorize correction and rally phases into distinct waves.
Dogecoin is currently contained within a broad correction formation, repeatedly testing key support levels. Since peaking earlier in 2024, a downward-sloping trendline has served as a primary resistance, capping any recovery attempts.
Hailey emphasizes that as long as previous Elliott wave structures remain intact, a triangle formation is the most probable scenario, with the price holding nearly 30% above the invalidation level.
According to the analysis, the Wave 4 support zone is a pivotal area for Dogecoin’s long-term outlook. If this zone holds, the price could target the $1.00 to $1.10 range in the next upward swing. This scenario would represent a potential gain of over 1,090% from the projected bottom. However, it is also noted that a period of sideways consolidation may occur either before or after any prospective rally.
RSI readings echo historical bottoms
Trader Tardigrade points out that Dogecoin’s weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) has returned to the low levels last seen during previous market bottoms. The RSI is a widely used momentum indicator that helps determine whether an asset is reaching overbought or oversold conditions.
During the 2022 bear market, Dogecoin’s weekly RSI dropped to similar points, after which the price surged approximately 886%, closing near $0.48. Because the current setup closely mirrors this historical pattern, there is renewed discussion about the possibility of a move toward the $0.70 region should the pattern repeat itself.
Trader Tardigrade cautions that while an oversold RSI alone does not guarantee a bullish reversal, it can signal that selling pressure is beginning to weaken.
At the same time, DOGE is trading near the critical $0.07 support area, which has previously attracted strong buying interest. Whether this level can be held is expected to play a decisive role in determining Dogecoin’s short- and medium-term trend.
Long positions rise in futures trading
Expert CW observes that, since June 24, there has been a clear increase in long positions on BitMEX. Open interest has grown from about 1 billion contracts to nearly 1.7 billion. This suggests fresh capital is entering DOGE futures as prices hover near monthly lows.
| Indicator | Previous | Current status |
|---|---|---|
| Open interest | Around 1 billion contracts | Nearly 1.7 billion contracts |
| Key support | $0.07 area | Closely watched |
| Potential target range | $0.70 | $1.00 to $1.10 |
The rise in net long positions suggests many investors are expecting a leveraged upward move. However, this scenario also introduces additional risk. If Dogecoin fails to break through resistance levels, a rapid liquidation of leveraged positions could intensify selling pressure.
