Bitcoin recovered to near $81,000 on Wednesday, October 28, after briefly dipping below key support levels, but market-cycle analyst Bob Loukas cautioned that current price strength may be short-lived unless buying momentum significantly improves.
Analysts focus on market cycle and support zones
Bob Loukas, known for his market-cycle research, commented on X that both Bitcoin and stocks have demonstrated resilience despite widespread negative sentiment. However, he indicated that this resilience could be tested if buyers do not step in soon.
On October 21, Loukas argued that Bitcoin could be entering a new market cycle, suggesting the possibility of higher prices well into late November or early December. Despite this, he stressed that the setup alone is not enough to guarantee a significant rally. He highlighted $79,600 as a threshold, stating that dips below this level would make him more cautious.
Bitcoin fell below $79,600 during October 27 trading, touching around $79,500 before rebounding to close near $80,900. This intraday volatility has increased uncertainty over whether the bullish market cycle will continue without interruption.
Loukas indicated that the rapid rebound after briefly falling below $79,600 does not automatically signal a breakdown, yet called for more evidence of sustained buying to confirm further upside.
Recent price action follows a short-lived selloff beneath $80,000, reigniting doubts about whether buyers can reliably defend Bitcoin’s former support zone. Bitfinex, a global cryptocurrency exchange, recently identified technical structural support between $77,000 and $80,000.
Mini dictionary: Bitfinex is a major digital asset exchange providing spot and derivatives trading services to users worldwide.
Institutional forecasts diverge on next direction
Coinbase, the leading US-based cryptocurrency exchange, outlined in an October 23 institutional report that the $80,000–$82,000 region is a significant support zone. This is the area where many spot Bitcoin ETF holders have an average purchase price.
If Bitcoin falls below this critical region, Coinbase expects a higher probability of price testing the $73,000–$75,000 range. Coinbase further noted that approximately 2.1 million BTC recently moved between $87,500 and $91,700, which could present additional selling pressure if prices return to those levels.
| Support/Resistance Level | Source/Analyst | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| $77,000–$80,000 | Bitfinex | Technical structural support |
| $80,000–$82,000 | Coinbase | Key ETF holder support |
| $79,600 | Bob Loukas | Defensive threshold |
| $85,000–$86,000 | Jamie Coutts/Real Vision | Momentum breakout point |
| $87,500–$91,700 | Coinbase | Potential selling pressure |
| $73,000–$75,000 | Coinbase | Downside test if support fails |
Contrasting Coinbase’s caution, Jamie Coutts, an analyst at Real Vision, predicted that if Bitcoin can clear the $85,000–$86,000 area, momentum could carry the price toward $100,000. This outlook matches previous recovery expectations outlined by Coinpaper, especially regarding a potential breakout near $90,000. However, moving toward six figures would still require overcoming the considerable supply concentration at higher price levels.
If Bitcoin can close above $85,000, analysts like Coutts believe the stage could be set for a rapid move to $100,000, barring resistance from significant past sellers.
ETF flows and Federal Reserve decisions shape outlook
Recent shifts in institutional capital may also be affecting Bitcoin’s price stability. Coinbase reported that since August, Bitcoin ETFs have brought in roughly $6.4 billion in inflows, while corporate treasuries added just $1.5 billion. Earlier in the year, the dynamic was reversed: corporate purchases dominated with $14.5 billion, while ETF products faced nearly $5 billion in withdrawals.
The increasing reliance on ETF demand has placed additional focus on the support areas defended by these large institutional investors.
For bullish investors, reclaiming $82,000 would bolster short-term prospects, with $85,000–$86,000 remaining a major barrier. Traders bearish on the outlook see a decisive move below $79,600 as opening the path to $77,000, and potentially to Coinbase’s projected $73,000–$75,000 range.
Adding to the sense of unpredictability is the Federal Reserve’s policy decision on October 28, as higher interest rates typically dampen risk appetite throughout financial markets, including for cryptocurrencies.
Longer-term projections remain optimistic, with Citi maintaining a $113,000 target for Bitcoin, significantly above current market prices.
