After a brief rally, AVAX slid back toward the critical $10 range, closing the last 24 hours down 4.33 percent. During the session, the coin traded between lows of $9.69 and highs of $10.22. According to CryptoAppsy data, AVAX is currently priced at $9.73. While this movement does not entirely erase the recent bullish sentiment, it signals a key test for the cryptocurrency in the coming days.
Technical analysis points to momentum shift
Technical analyst Shango’s chart shows a concurrent breakout in both AVAX’s price and its RSI indicator, hinting at renewed bullish momentum. The price’s move above its descending resistance line and RSI’s escape from a compression zone both suggest that the current upward trend stands on firmer technical ground.
Analysts emphasize that such breakouts are more likely to stick when supported by momentum and trading volume. The immediate upside target is cited as $10.80, with $11.25 as a secondary goal. Should AVAX fail to consolidate above those levels, a pullback to the $9.50–$9.70 region remains possible.
“Breakout in both price and RSI are moving together; the first bullish targets lay at $10.80 and $11.25,” according to Shango’s analysis.
Market faces selling pressure from Manifold
Despite an improving technical setup, a major risk factor has emerged on the liquidity front. Quantitative trading firm Manifold has attracted attention with its significant AVAX sell orders on Bybit recently. The company offloaded 85,000 AVAX for around $814,300, and a day prior, sold 22,000 AVAX for $208,800. Over the past year, Manifold’s total AVAX sales have reached $154.55 million.
These substantial sell volumes have placed renewed supply pressure on the AVAX market, making it more difficult for the cryptocurrency to sustain a recovery. The resulting surplus supply is hampering efforts for a decisive upward move.
Macro trends suggest long-term growth potential
Zooming out, AVAX has remained stuck below key resistance levels for almost three years, forming a compressed long-term chart structure. Analyst Flippix notes that this prolonged consolidation could lay the groundwork for an eventual powerful breakout. On the macro scale, the next significant resistance levels are $35, $65, and the $140–$146 range. These are not immediate goals, however; any such rally would require the price to first build a strong foundation in the current $9–$10 area.
Short-term focus: $15 target and key thresholds
In the near term, whether AVAX can regain and sustain levels above $10—particularly $10.80 and $11.25—will determine if the coin can aim for the next target of $15. Analyst Blacksea highlights that AVAX needs to establish strength above its present range to keep bullish hopes alive. Breaking above $10.80 and $11.25 could set up a potential move into the $12–$15 band, but a new dip below $10, especially beneath $9.50, would undermine the bullish scenario.
Immediate support for AVAX stands at $9.50–$9.70, with a stronger base at $9. On the upside, breakouts at $10.00, $10.80, and $11.25 are seen as pivotal to triggering further gains. In the medium term, $15 is the main goal, while longer-term resistance is located at $35, $65, and $140.
Key resistance: $10.80 as the first milestone
AVAX’s technical setup has generally improved over recent weeks, with both price and RSI freeing themselves from downward pressure and paving the way for a potential upward run. However, persistent selling from Manifold continues to be a headwind; for a lasting rally, AVAX needs to clear specific resistance levels decisively.
Sustaining price in the $9–$9.50 range would support recovery, while reclaiming $10 would show a return in short-term momentum. Breaking past $10.80 and then $11.25 in the near future would be strong bullish signals, likely fueling further price acceleration.
