Famous cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen recently shared his views on Bitcoin‘s (BTC) current state and future growth potential in a video with his YouTube subscribers. Cowen emphasized that Bitcoin is at a “very critical point” and suggested that if the largest cryptocurrency manages to break above a significant moving average on the weekly chart, it could experience a major rally.
Drawing Parallels with 2013 and 2021
Cowen identified the 20-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) as a crucial level for Bitcoin. He explained that a breakout above this moving average could pave the way for further price increases. Referring to past models, Cowen drew parallels with 2021, when Bitcoin’s ability to stay above the 20-week SMA led to an upward movement period and an all-time high.
Historically, Bitcoin has shown a tendency to repeat certain patterns after the block reward halving, and Cowen believes that breaking above the 20-week SMA is necessary for Bitcoin to repeat the major rallies seen in previous years. Furthermore, the analyst noted that the current price action of the largest cryptocurrency resembles what happened in 2013. During that year, Bitcoin crossed above the 20-week SMA several times before establishing a stable position above it.
Cowen detailed the 2013 scenario where Bitcoin initially struggled to maintain levels above the 20-week SMA, mimicking the current market behavior. The analyst highlighted that in 2013, Bitcoin gradually moved above the 20-week SMA while setting a series of lower peaks. By August of that year, Bitcoin had firmly positioned itself above the SMA, held the SMA as support in September, and then experienced a strong rally in the fourth quarter (Q4).
Breaking the 20-Week SMA for a Major Rally
Based on this historical information, Cowen argues that Bitcoin needs to break the 20-week SMA and maintain its position above it to initiate a significant rally.
According to him, this process may encounter sharp volatility and temporary declines, but the largest cryptocurrency’s price breaking above this key level will indicate strong upward momentum.
