In the wake of fluctuations observed in cryptocurrency charts, the four-year cycle narrative has gained traction among buyers, drawing considerable interest in bearish scenarios for Bitcoin (BTC). Following a recent downturn, Bernstein analysts have shared their new predictions. While their target lows aren’t close to current levels, their analysis includes other vital details.
Bernstein’s 2026 Cryptocurrency Forecasts
Bernstein Research, part of the AllianceBernstein (AB) group, is renowned for its comprehensive evaluations of cryptocurrencies. With over $867 billion under management, AllianceBernstein holds a $5 billion valuation and employs approximately 4,850 professionals worldwide. Headquartered in Nashville, Tennessee, the company’s majority stake of about 68% belongs to Equitable Holdings, originating from French insurance giant AXA.
Now that we’ve established the unique standpoint of Bernstein’s analysts, let’s delve into their assessments. Led by Gautam Chhugani, the analysts conveyed in a recent client note that cryptocurrencies are currently in a short-term bearish cycle.
Analysts predict that the peak of the last cycle, around $60,000 for BTC, will serve as the low point in 2026. Bernstein highlights that the rapid erosion of BTC’s value against gold is due to central banks, including those of China and India, hastening their gold accumulation. This context partly explains last year’s weak performance.
Bernstein perceives the past two years as a “corporate cycle” for Bitcoin, citing that the total ETF inflows have surpassed $165 billion alongside treasury corporations.
Analysts, believing Kevin Warsh could facilitate better relations between the cryptocurrency industry and the Fed, anticipate Bitcoin to be taken more seriously within the Federal Reserve. They argue that the crypto winter isn’t in its early stages but rather amidst a delayed correction, remaining hopeful for 2026.
Bitcoin (BTC)
BTC lit its first daily green candle in four days after hitting a deeper low. Maintaining levels around $78,000 is promising, but in the short term, breaking past $82,000 and surpassing the ETF cost average is crucial. The actions of ETF investors will be significant in determining market trends today.
If ETF investors expedite sales due to anxiety over larger losses from prices dropping below cost, it could further lower the spot price. Notably, previous outflows have set the stage for 2026 to become a year of net withdrawals.
