Bernstein, a prominent global investment research and brokerage firm, has projected that Bitcoin’s price could climb to $150,000 by mid-2027, citing mounting government debt and concerns about currency devaluation as major factors driving demand for scarce assets like BTC.
Bitcoin targets backed by macroeconomic concerns
Bernstein’s analysts outlined a base-case scenario that sees Bitcoin returning to around $125,000 by the end of 2026, followed by a rise to $150,000 during the first half of 2027. Looking further ahead, they forecast a potential cycle peak near $300,000 for Bitcoin in 2029.
The firm cited a sharp 28% rebound in Bitcoin’s price over a recent ten-day period, coming after a significant drawdown of about 50% from its peak in October 2025. Analysts believe this recent BTC rally has pushed Strategy, a major Bitcoin holding company, back into a profitable position as Bitcoin surpassed $77,000.
Bernstein pointed to the growing fiscal pressures faced by governments, noting the US sovereign debt has reached nearly $40 trillion. With interest rates staying high, the cost of servicing this debt continues to rise. The analysts argued that policymakers may ultimately tolerate greater currency depreciation rather than take unpopular steps to tighten fiscal policy and stabilize public finances.
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AAPLScarcity and institutional access
Bitcoin’s supply limitation—capped at 21 million coins—remains a central part of Bernstein’s thesis, as it underpins the asset’s scarcity narrative. The firm referenced Coinpaper’s ongoing coverage explaining how Bitcoin’s fixed issuance distinguishes it from traditional currencies.
Institutional access has also evolved. Bernstein reported that approximately 59% of Bitcoin’s supply has not moved in over a year, and that the rise of spot Bitcoin ETFs, along with more corporates holding BTC in their treasuries, has broadened market participation. This structural change could help mitigate the steep 75% to 90% drawdowns observed in past Bitcoin cycles.
Mini dictionary: Spot ETF, or spot exchange-traded fund, allows traditional investors to gain direct exposure to the price of an asset, such as Bitcoin, without owning the asset itself or handling its custody. This structure simplifies institutional and retail investment in cryptocurrencies.
Bernstein projects, “Bitcoin could see new highs if institutional capital accelerates inflows amid currency debasement pressures, potentially reaching $200,000 by mid-2027 and $500,000 in 2029.”
Higher projections and risks for Strategy
Bernstein noted a more optimistic “bull case,” where a rapid influx of institutional capital could drive Bitcoin to $200,000 by mid-2027, with a forecast peak near $500,000 by 2029. The firm reaffirmed its long-term outlook of BTC approaching $1 million by the end of 2033, provided that positive macroeconomic trends and adoption continue.
Spot ETFs could play a significant role in this upward trajectory by offering traditional investors exposure to Bitcoin through established financial channels.
| Scenario | Mid-2027 BTC Target | 2029 Peak | 2033 Outlook |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base Case | $150,000 | $300,000 | – |
| Bull Case | $200,000 | $500,000 | $1,000,000 |
Despite maintaining bullish expectations for Bitcoin itself, Bernstein lowered its price target for shares in Strategy from $450 to $350, reflecting updated Bitcoin cycle forecasts and concerns about faster equity dilution. The new target suggests about 176% upside from Strategy’s closing share price of $126.83 as of Tuesday.
Strategy, a company known for actively holding Bitcoin on its balance sheet, currently owns 840,447 BTC, estimated to be about 4% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply. Recent corporate action shows a more cautious approach, with Strategy pausing new Bitcoin purchases and raising capital through equity sales.
Bernstein estimated that Strategy has roughly 3.9 years of coverage for its interest and preferred-dividend obligations, allowing some flexibility in capital allocation. The company’s financial framework enables it to sell BTC, maintain reserves, or repurchase shares as needed.
However, Bernstein identified a key distinction: while the firm remains positive on Bitcoin’s long-term prospects, Strategy’s share structure introduces dilution and financing risks not faced by direct Bitcoin holders.
Bernstein’s analysis highlights the difference between owning BTC directly and relying on equity exposure through companies like Strategy, given the potential impact of dilution and funding requirements.
