Altcoin market participation on Binance has dropped sharply since early October, fueling fresh doubts about the strength and duration of the recent rally. Analyst Darkfost reported on October 18 that only 51.6% of tracked Binance altcoins remained above their 200-day moving averages, compared to over 90% just weeks earlier.
Altcoin market retreats as breadth weakens
The 200-day moving average is widely used to evaluate long-term price trends, offering a broader view of market sentiment. When fewer altcoins trade above this threshold, it suggests that positive momentum is waning across the sector—even as some individual coins may still show resilience.
In late August, the altcoin market appeared to enter a brief recovery after a period of heavy losses. At that time, 81% of surveyed altcoins traded below their 200-day average. By September 19, about 70% had risen above this metric—a level not seen since October 2025. Market capitalization excluding Ethereum climbed past $800 billion as participation broadened, and by early October, more than 90% of altcoins had moved above the benchmark.
However, early warning signs emerged. Darkfost pointed to an uptick in exchange deposits, which often signals rising intent to sell. Weekly deposit transactions exceeded 22,700 on Binance and 8,300 on Coinbase during the rally’s peak. As of mid-October, only 51.6% of Binance altcoins traded above the 200-day average, with 48.4% below the line—compared to under 10% earlier in the month.
Darkfost noted the rapid shift: “The Altseason is cooling fast as altcoin breadth drops from over 90% to around 52%.” He added, “[Between] late August and early October, altcoins went through a brief altseason, which is now starting to fade.”
$134 billion leaves altcoins, market indices signal caution
Darkfost estimated over $814 billion flowed into the altcoin market during the preceding two-month rally. In the most recent 15-day period, he observed a $134 billion decrease, though he did not specify whether this amount represents pure capital outflows or a decline in overall market capitalization.
This distinction is important, as falling market value does not always reflect a matching withdrawal of funds. Market observers also referenced key indicators, such as the Altcoin Season Index published by CoinMarketCap, which at press time stood at 54—well below the 75-point threshold needed to confirm an “altcoin season.”
| Metric | Early October | October 18 |
|---|---|---|
| Breadth above 200-day average | Over 90% | 51.6% |
| Altcoin Season Index | Not stated | 54 |
| BTC dominance | Not stated | 60.1% |
Mini dictionary: Altcoin Season Index, a measure designed by CoinMarketCap and other analytics providers, tracks how widespread positive performance is among altcoins relative to Bitcoin. A reading above 75 is generally seen as confirmation that an “altcoin season” is underway.
Bitcoin’s share of the total crypto market held steady at 60.1% as its price remained close to $81,500. An alternate index by BlockchainCenter also failed to reach levels signaling a confirmed altcoin season.
While current data do not mark a definitive end to the rally, they highlight diminished participation and greater uncertainty across the altcoin landscape. A rebound in breadth would require a significantly higher number of coins to climb back above their long-term price average.
