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Although Bitcoin 
$107,372 started 2025 weakly, it now shows recovery signs, nearing $100,000 again. The primary driver of its price in the markets is the growing interest from institutional investors and the potential impact of government policies on cryptocurrency reserves. The Washington administration is exploring strategies to strategically purchase Bitcoin through “budget-neutral” methods that focus on options without imposing tax burdens. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes argues, however, that this process will be more challenging than anticipated.
Economic Backdrop of U.S. Bitcoin Reserve Discussions
According to Hayes, the public opinion in the U.S. is distant from the idea of “printing money to buy Bitcoin” due to high debt loads and concerns over political popularity. The U.S. Treasury accumulating cryptocurrency by printing money may ignite inflation debates and leave a wrong impression on the electorate. Consequently, policymakers are examining indirect funding channels, like revenues from customs duties.
On the other hand, the U.S. currently holds about 200,000 Bitcoin confiscated in law enforcement operations. Hayes indicates that this amount largely meets the strategic reserve requirement. However, geopolitical risks and supply chain shocks could bring the concept of digital reserves back to the agenda in the coming years. On the institutional side, new spot ETFs inject liquidity into the market without leaving the government constrained.
Hayes’s Compelling Bitcoin Forecasts for 2028
Hayes predicts that the expansion of the American budget deficit, rising healthcare expenditures, and increasing supply costs will support cryptocurrency prices in the long term. Hayes suggests that by 2028, Bitcoin could exceed the $1 million threshold, viewing it not only as “high beta” but also as financial insurance against the decline of U.S. hegemony.
The shift of institutional funds towards Ethereum 
$2,634 and similar products has altered the risk perception of portfolio managers. Historically, increased government spending has exerted upward pressure on cryptocurrency prices; a similar trend might emerge today where debt issues have become chronic. While short-term volatility is inevitable, long-term expectations for Bitcoin remain bullish.
